The invention provides a
debris flow discharge and volume-weight evolution-with-distance prediction method. The method comprises that a distributed hydrological model in the physical mechanism divides sub river basins and calculates water power formed by
rainfall runoff generation and confluence of the slope-channel
system of each sub river basin; the thickness, reserve volume and distribution of movable
solid matter under the action of the water power are calculated based on an infinite slope model or a movable
solid matter discrimination model; the volume-weight and
discharge process of a water and soil mixture formed after power matching of water and soil on the sub river basin outlet are calculated by means of a volume-weight and
discharge evolution-with-distance prediction model; according to the grading order and topological relation of the sub river basins, the volume-weight and discharge process of the whole river basin outlet or set section along the river is subjected to
back calculation through the volume-weight and discharge process of each sub river basin. According to the invention, subjectivity and nondeterminacy of manual calculation of
debris flow discharge and scale through a traditional
empirical formula are eliminated, and the
debris flow discharge and volume-weight evolution-with-distance prediction method can be widely applied to aspects of debris flow monitoring and early warning, prevention
engineering key
parameter design, risk analysis and the like.