The invention provides a real-time monthly runoff forecasting method based on a
deep learning model, and the method comprises the steps: 1, collecting forecasting factors based on historical information and future meteorological information, and determining the longest
delay of the influence of the early monthly runoff on the forecast monthly according to the autocorrelation analysis of the monthly runoff in the historical period of a
drainage basin; 2, performing normalization
processing on forecast factors and monthly runoff data in a
training period, and automatically screening the forecast factors by adopting an
LASSO regression method based on an embedded thought; 3, clustering the
training period sample set by adopting a K-means clustering method based on a division thought, and dividing samples into K classes which do not coincide with each other; 4, calculating the distance between the forecasting factor vector of the
verification set and the clustering center of the K training sets, finding the nearest
training set, and then training a combined
deep learning forecasting model combining the
convolutional neural network and the gating circulation unit network by using the
data set; and 5, carrying out real-time correction on the forecast residual error by adopting an autoregressive
moving average model.