A method for predicting the secondary
porosity system (SPS)
porosity, and thereby permeability, of a
coal bed involves determining an initial condition in the
coal bed, including an initial SPS pressure and an initial sorbed
gas composition, determining a pressure
strain effect due to increasing the SPS pressure to a value greater than the initial SPS pressure, and determining a
sorption strain effect due to changes in the sorbed
gas composition resulting from decreasing the
methane content and increasing the content of a stronger adsorbing fluid (SAG) relative to the initial sorbed
gas composition. Preferably, the method uses data from test injections of water and / or a weaker adsorbing fluid (WAG) and a SAG. The data is used in the inventors' model to compute a SPS
porosity and an absolute permeability at a reference SPS pressure and a reference sorbed gas composition. Preferably, the reference pressure is
atmospheric pressure. The inventors' model accounts for both
dynamic pressure strain and dynamic multicomponent
sorption strain effects. As a result, a calibrated model can be produced for the
coal bed for predicting the coal bed's SPS porosity, and thereby permeability, as a function of a pre-selected injection or production fluid's composition and / or SPS pressure conditions.