The invention discloses a method for judging the groove debris flow occurring possibility at present and the groove debris flow occurring possibility in future. The method for judging the groove debris flow occurring possibility at present includes the steps of S1, selecting a groove, and using the formula (please refer to the specifications for the detailed formula) to calculate the hs, S2, using the formula to calculate the h0, and S3, comparing to judge whether the h0 is larger than or equal to the hs or not, issuing a debris flow alarm starting information if the h0 is larger than or equal to the hs, and being free of issuing the debris flow alarm starting information if the h0 is smaller than the hs. The method for judging the groove debris flow occurring possibility in future includes the steps of S1, selecting the groove, and using the formula to calculate the Q0', S2, using the formula to calculate the Q0, S3, using the formula to calculate the Cq, and using the formula to calculate the n, S4, using the forecast precipitation information issued by the meteorological department, and respectively obtaining P1, P2, P3...Pi, S5, using the formula to calculate the Qi, S6, solving S7, comparing to judge whether the Pi is larger than or equal to the P0 or not, and using the iteration method to determine the hi, and S8, comparing to judge whether the hi is larger than or equal to the hs or not, issuing the debris flow forecast starting information if the hi is larger than or equal to the hs, and being free of issuing the debris flow forecast starting information if the hi is smaller than the hs. The method is concise in technological process and accurate in judged conclusion.