63 results about "Risk distribution" patented technology

A computer-implemented method and system for assessing the overall risk in at least part of an information technology system includes inputting into a risk assessment database a plurality of identified risks in a system; associating the risks to at least one severity band in a risk echelon; assigning a value to each risk; multiplying each risk value by a coefficient factor; and summing the factored risk values to determine the overall risk. The method preferably includes modifying the security implementation of the information technology system and determining the modified overall risk. The system preferably includes an automated vulnerability detection scanner to gather risk information, which is stored on a database and used in calculating the overall risk.

A system for correctly evaluating a price distribution and a risk distribution for a financial product or its derivatives introduces a probability density function generated with a Boltzmann model at a higher accuracy than the Gaussian distribution for a probability density. The system has an initial value setup unit and an evaluation condition setup unit. Initial values include at least one of price, price change rate, and the price change direction of a financial product. The evaluation conditions include at least time steps and the number of trials. The Boltzmann model analysis unit receives the initial values and the evaluation conditions, and repeats simulations of price fluctuation, based on the Boltzmann model using a Monte Carlo method. A velocity / direction distribution setup unit supplies the probability distributions of the price, price change rate, and the price change direction for the financial product to the Boltzmann model analysis unit. A random number generator for a Monte Carlo method employed in the analysis by the Boltzmann model, and an output unit displays the analysis result. A dealing system applies the financial Boltzmann model to option pricing, and reproduces the characteristics of Leptokurcity and Fat-tail by linear Boltzmann equation in order to define risk-neutral and unique probability measures. Consequently, option prices can be evaluated in a risk-neutral and unique manner, taking into account Leptokurcity and Fat-tail of a price change distribution.

The present invention is operative to disable at least one infotainment device under certain conditions relative to the current driving environment of the user. The system uses a weighted matrix to assign risk to certain sensed conditions while driving. A changed condition is assigned a weight and the weighted risks are summed to calculate risk level information. The risk level information is thereafter compared to priority level information associated with at least one infotainment device. When the risk level information exceeds or is equal to the priority level information of the at least one infotainment device the system temporarily disables the infotainment device until the driving environment changes to a condition where it is safe to operate the infotainment device.

The food safety system and method of the present invention provides a comprehensive consumer risk distribution model, which can be applied to any food item. Additionally, the present invention automatically evaluates consumer risk based on how much contaminated food is at each stage of the food distribution process according to the consumer risk distribution model, allowing for quick and accurate determinations as to the efficacy of a trace recall effort. A further element of the present invention provides expert analysis of data to detect and identify food events from sporadic information. Finally, the real time detection system provides early warning data in order to intercept isolated food contamination events before the contaminated food products reach the consuming public.

A practice management method and system includes a repository for storing client information data including at least one client identifier and at least one client characteristic associated with the client. Client account data is also stored and identifies at least one account linked to the client via the at least one client identifier, the client account data includes data representing a financial portfolio associated with the client and having an initial balance value and a risk value. A risk allocation profile data is stored in the repository and includes a risk allocation profile type and a risk allocation value. A data processor is electrically coupled to the repository and acquires the client information data and the client account data including the financial portfolio having the initial balance value and calculates an updated balance value for the financial portfolio based on the risk allocation profile type and comparing the risk allocation value of the risk allocation profile type with the risk value of the financial profile data. The data processor modifies the client account data in response to the comparison to include the calculated updated balance value for the financial portfolio data.

Embodiments consistent with the present invention provide a credit enhancement structure for risk allocation between parties that minimizes the regulatory capital reserve requirement impact to an institution subject to capital reserve requirement. A subject pool of assets held by the institution, such as a pool of loans, is rated to determine its risk levels. Based on the rated risk levels, a guarantor party agrees to be responsible for a portion of the risk associated with the pool of assets, which may define the maximum risk exposure of the institution holding the asset pool. The risk-rated capital reserve requirements are applied to the asset pool based on the risk level rating and the guarantor's agreed upon risk responsibility such that the institution holds a reduced amount of reserve capital compared to what it would otherwise be required to hold.

A computer-implemented method and system for assessing the overall risk in at least part of an information technology system includes inputting into a risk assessment database a plurality of identified risks in a system; associating the risks to at least one severity band in a risk echelon; assigning a value to each risk; multiplying each risk value by a coefficient factor; and summing the factored risk values to determine the overall risk. The method preferably includes modifying the security implementation of the information technology system and determining the modified overall risk. The system preferably includes an automated vulnerability detection scanner to gather risk information, which is stored on a database and used in calculating the overall risk.

A system and method is provided for identification, quantification, and analysis of risks within a supply chain infrastructure. A combination of risk event data, risk interaction definition, and risk assignment hierarchy is used to dynamically model the expected impact of risk to pre-defined performance measures within the system. The dynamic modeling is carried out with the help of the Monte Carlo simulation engine.

The invention relates to a mountain torrent disaster risk division and prediction method based on GIS (geographic information system)-neural network integration. The method includes the steps: S1 mining the association relationship between a risk factor and a risk grade in a mountain torrent disaster by the aid of association rules, identifying the risk factor and building a quantitative mountaintorrent disaster risk evaluation index system; S2 determining risk and vulnerability index system by an analytic hierarchy process and the weight of the system to generate feature layers; S3 stackingmountain torrent disaster risk and vulnerability distribution layers by ArcGIS to obtain a mountain torrent disaster risk distribution diagram; S4 performing clustering by an ISO maximum likelihood method, merging regions from bottom to top and performing qualitative analysis from top to bottom to form mountain torrent disaster risk division; S5 analyzing non-linear relationships among evaluationindexes, the risk grade and disaster data by an Elman neural network, and building a mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation and loss prediction model. The problem of spatial scale uncertainty in mountain torrent disaster evaluation in a changing environment can be solved, and the method can be widely used for evaluating mountain torrent disaster risks.

The invention discloses a regional flood disaster risk evaluation and estimation method coupling a GIS algorithm and a GBDT algorithm. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a regionalflood disaster risk evaluation index system based on four types of disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environments, disaster-bearing bodies and disaster prevention and reduction capacities,and normalizing the regional flood disaster risk evaluation index system to generate evaluation index layers; obtaining the optimal combination weight of each evaluation index, and generating four types of regional flood disaster risk distribution map layers; determining a final historical region flood disaster risk division map based on expert opinions; and constructing a regional flood disasterrisk evaluation model, predicting a future regional flood disaster risk, and generating a future regional flood disaster risk division map by using ArcGIS. The method has superiority for multivariatebig data processing, is suitable for basin or regional flood risk assessment and prediction, and can remarkably improve the calculation precision and the reliability of assessment and decision making.

The invention discloses an underground water grading and zoning evaluation method in an agricultural activity area. The method comprises the following steps of: establishing a set of index system for evaluation, arranging a sampling point in a spatial discretization mode, acquiring an underground water sample, screening the indexes according to the characteristics of primary indexes, calculating the weight of each index and the degree of membership of each sampling point index, comprehensively evaluating the regional underground water pollution risk, and zoning and grading the underground water risk. Aiming at the pollution characteristics of the agricultural activity area in China, the method has high adaptability and popularization, and the underground water risk grade and risk distribution in the agricultural activity area can be scientifically and reasonably evaluated.

The invention provides a service route selection method and device in an electric power communication network. The method comprises the following steps: according to a topological structure of the electric power communication network, distributing a path for an arriving service, adopting a Dijsktra algorithm to acquire a path set of the arriving service; traversing the path set, calculating a full-service risk degree, a full-network risk degree, a full-network load balance degree and a full-network risk balance degree responding to the path; rejecting the path set according to the full-service risk degree, the full-network risk degree and the full-network load balance degree until traversing all paths in the path set and acquiring a target path set; if the target path set is non-null, then performing ascending sort on the paths in the target path set, and selecting a first path as a service route; and making the arriving service to forward a message according to the service route. The service route selection method and device in the electric power communication network provided by the invention can uniformly distribute the service routes in the electric power communication network and avoid the concentrated risk distribution.

The invention provides a reliability design optimization method for an avionic device. By means of the reliability design optimization method for the avionic device, the reliability index of the device can be practically and effectively promoted in the design stage. According to the technical scheme, the method comprises the following steps that three-dimensional digital prototype modeling is conducted according to an avionic device design scheme; on the basis of a three-dimensional digital prototype, environmental stress digital prototype modeling is conducted according to a device working load, an environmental load and design information relevant to device characteristics, and a model is corrected and verified; thermal environment stress, mechanical environment stress and the like of the avionic device are analyzed by referring to environmental conditions, environmental stress weak links of the device are searched, and corresponding avionic device design optimization is conducted; a fault physical digital prototype model is built, environmental stress analysis results are introduced to conduct device fault risk prediction, avionic device design optimization is conducted aiming at the reliability weak links occurring in the analysis process, and the reliability level of the avionic device is evaluated according to the optimized fault risk distribution situation.

The invention provides a fault pre-diagnosis and health management method of a mechanical and electrical device and a system. The method comprises steps of data acquisition: acquiring data information of the mechanical and electrical device; self-diagnosis: carrying out feature extraction and model establishment on historical data information of a certain mechanical and electrical device under different operation modes and health states, and using the currently established model to compare the acquired data information with the historical data information under the current state and automatically identifying the current health state of the mechanical and electrical device; health state prediction: predicting the change of future health states of the mechanical and electrical device according to the acquired current health state after the self-diagnosis and the historical health state of the mechanical and electrical device; and clustering analysis: carrying out clustering and analysis comparison on the data information of multiple mechanical and electrical devices in a mechanical and electrical device cluster according to the current health state of the single mechanical and electrical device so as to obtain health state grades and risk distribution of multiple mechanical and electrical devices.

A system for correctly evaluating price distribution and risk distribution for a financial product or its derivatives introduces a probability density function generated with a Boltzmann model at a higher accuracy than the Gaussian distribution for a probability density. The system has an initial value setup unit and an evaluation condition setup unit. Initial values include at least one of price, price change rate, and price change direction of a financial product. The evaluation conditions include at least time steps and a number of trials. A Boltzmann model analysis unit receives the initial values and the evaluation conditions, and repeats simulations of price fluctuation, based on the Boltzmann model using a Monte Carlo method. A velocity / direction distribution setup unit supplies probability distributions of the price, price change rate, and price change direction for the financial product to the Boltzmann model analysis unit. A random number generator for a Monte Carlo method is employed in the analysis by the Boltzmann model, and an output unit displays the analysis result. A dealing system applies the financial Boltzmann model to option pricing, and reproduces the characteristics of Leptokurcity and Fat-tail by a linear Boltzmann equation to define risk-neutral and unique probability measures. Consequently, option prices can be evaluated in a risk-neutral and unique manner, taking into account Leptokurcity and Fat-tail of a price change distribution.

For settling problems such as liability and obligation risk distribution indeterminacy, intellectual property ownership disputing and easy leakage of shared secret information in building informationmodel BIM technology in prior art, the invention provides a building multiple-supply-chain coordination system based on blockchain and a BIM model, and a method thereof. Through combining characteristics of decentralization and unchangeable record in blockchain technology and advantages of high integration degree and platform sharing in the BIM model, the building multiple-supply-chain coordination system which has advantages of stronger function, higher information safety and wider application is constructed. The building multiple-supply-chain coordination system based on the blockchain and the BIM model mainly comprises a technological layer, a data layer, a model layer, an interaction layer, an application layer and a user layer.

Embodiments consistent with the present invention provide a credit enhancement structure for risk allocation between parties that minimizes the regulatory capital reserve requirement impact to an institution subject to capital reserve requirement. A subject pool of assets held by the institution, such as a pool of loans, is rated to determine its risk levels. Based on the rated risk levels, a guarantor party agrees to be responsible for a portion of the risk associated with the pool of assets, which may define the maximum risk exposure of the institution holding the asset pool. The risk-rated capital reserve requirements are applied to the asset pool based on the risk level rating and the guarantor's agreed upon risk responsibility such that the institution holds a reduced amount of reserve capital compared to what it would otherwise be required to hold.

An outlier detector that exploits the existing risk structure of the decision problem in order to discover risk assignments that are globally inconsistent is described. The technique works on a set of candidates for which risk categories have already been assigned. In the case of insurance underwriting, the invention pertains to the premium class assigned to an application. For this set of labeled candidates, the system finds all such pairs of applications belonging to different risk categories, which violate the principle of dominance. The invention matches the risk ordering of the applications with the ordering imposed by dominance and uses any mismatch during the process to identify applications that were potentially assigned incorrect risk categories.

The invention discloses a driving steering collision early warning method. Firstly, a road coordinate system and a vehicle coordinate system describing the position information of a driving vehicle are constructed, then, a collision judgment function of the driving vehicle is defined according to the boundary position relation between the vehicle and the surrounding vehicles, afterwards, in the vehicle coordinate system at the moment t, the risk distribution of collision between the vehicle and the surrounding vehicles in a vehicle steering domain range is calculated at the moment t + tau according to the collision judgement function, the steering angle of the vehicle in the future tau time is predicted, and finally a collision avoidance strategy is formulated according to the collision risk distribution. According to the method in the invention, a driving steering collision risk index which can reflect the real-time change of vehicle track characteristics and has space-time continuityis constructed, and a more accurate collision avoidance scheme is provided for drivers.

The invention discloses an intelligent power grid fault positioning method and device. The method and the device monitor the operation temperature of distribution lines of the intelligent power grid system in real time, determine the normal operating state or abnormal fault operating state, warn about the area where the fault occurred, automatically estimate the location of the high-risk distribution network rack prone to occur fault and make an early warning mark, transmit the information through a communication function to a power grid base station and push it to the power grid operation andmaintenance personnel, so that faults can be processed more timely, and the influence caused by faults on the operation of the power grid is reduced. Measures can be taken in time for potential safety hazards to reduce the occurrence of operational faults. The distribution lines of each remote area are monitored in real time, so that the fault points can be intelligently judged, positioned in time and alarm can be timely raised when the remote areas occur an emergency situation, such as damage and fault of the distribution lines, so as to improve the operation and maintenance efficiency of the power grid.

The invention provides a subarea assessment and early warning method and system of geological disasters of power transmission lines. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining a plurality ofindex subarea distribution maps based on assessment index data of risk assessment areas of the geological disasters of the power transmission lines and pre-divided a plurality of subareas; performingcalculation on the index subarea distribution maps on a geographical information system by using a risk assessment model to obtain a risk distribution map of the geological disasters of the power transmission lines; and performing power transmission line area risk assessment and power transmission line tower risk assessment in the risk distribution map of the geological disasters of the power transmission lines based on the assessed area. According to the subarea assessment and early warning method provided by the invention, the assessed area is divided into a plurality of subareas, respectiverisk assessment systems are respectively determined according to the geological environment features of the subareas, differentiated subarea assessment is carried out, and especially for the risk assessment of large-area geological disasters, the assessment results can be more accurate.

The invention discloses an intrusion process layering online risk assessment system and a method, which are used for assessing the risk condition produced on three layers of the service, the host and the network of an occurrent intrusion process in real time. In the invention, on the layer of the service, an evidence theory is used for fusing multi vectors in an alarm thread to compute a risk index, wherein the vectors can response risk change conditions, the objective condition of intrusion risks is reflected by the risk index, and simultaneously, with target risk distribution reflected by subjective safety awareness, the risk condition of a target is comprehensively assessed; on the layer of the host, a risk assessment method based on a cask principle is provided; and on the layer of the network, a safety dependence network concept is provided, and an improved risk spreading algorithm is utilized so as to complete the risk assessment of the layer of the network. According to the invention, the alarm processes of alarm verification, aggregation and correlation as well as alarm confidence learning are closely combined with the risk assessment, so that the subjectivity, the fuzziness, the uncertainty and other problems in the risk assessment are better processed.

The invention discloses a refined diagnosis method for urban agglomeration area flood risk zoning. The method comprises the following steps of using a GIS spatial data analysis function to carry out data rasterization and standardization processing on each index; constructing a judgment matrix corresponding to the index system; calculating the relative weight of each index and the flood risk degree of different grid units so that establishment of an urban agglomeration area flood risk degree evaluation model based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and drawing of a flood risk map are realized. From the perspectives of rainstorm distribution characteristics, historical flood distribution characteristics, rainstorm ponding risk distribution characteristics of all cities and the like, theflood risk distribution characteristics of urban agglomeration areas are systematically diagnosed in an omnibearing and multi-angle mode. The flood risk degrees and risk levels of different dangerousareas are accurately calculated, a multi-index problem is scientifically and objectively synthesized into a single-index form, a single index capable of effectively measuring the flood risk degree isconstructed, and a reliable technical support means is provided for flood dangerous area division.

Methods, systems and computer products are provided for risk evaluation. A computer may assign a risk to an object which has an object estimation-value. The computer may also receive a risk estimation-value for the risk. The computer may re-calculate the object estimation-value based on the risk estimation-value.

The present invention relates to the power grid safety technology field, and discloses a power grid wildfire disaster risk distribution diagram drawing method and system to obtain the power grid riskdistribution situation under the wildfire disasters clearly and visually, and provide the decision support for taking the targeted wildfire disaster prevention measures. The method of the present invention comprises the steps of dividing the grids, and obtaining the power grid wildfire density prediction results of the grids respectively; analyzing the power transmission line set in each grid, superposing the longitudes and latitudes of the towers of the power transmission lines and the grids to analyze, when the towers of the lines are located in the grids, representing that the lines pass the grids, otherwise, determining that the lines do not pass the grids; calculating the power grid risk degree of each line; then calculating the power grid wildfire risk of each grid according to a correlation formula; and finally, ranking the power grid wildfire risk values of the grids, and matching colors according to the maximum value and the minimum value of the power grid wildfire risk valuesof the grids, thereby drawing a power grid wildfire disaster risk distribution diagram.

The invention provides a method and a system for calculating soil remediation amount of a contaminated site, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining pollution risk distribution maps of differentsoil layers according to the soil sample data of the contaminated site; selecting an area of which the pollution risk level reaches a preset level as a to-be-repaired area, and simplifying the boundary contour of the to-be-repaired area according to a preset simplified tolerance; partitioning the pollutant migration depths of different soil layers by adopting a Thiessen polygon according to the soil sample data to obtain a pollutant migration depth block map; and superposing the pollution risk distribution map and the pollutant migration depth block map of the same soil layer, calculating thesoil remediation amount of the polluted site according to the to-be-remediated area on the superposition map, and obtaining the inflection point coordinates of the to-be-remediated area for soil remediation construction. The method is simple to operate and convenient for practical application, the contaminated site soil remediation amount can be scientifically and reasonably calculated, the sitesoil remediation treatment difficulty is reduced, and the construction efficiency is improved.

The invention provides a power distribution network operation risk assessment method based on scene analysis, and the method comprises the steps: sampling wind power, photovoltaic output and load, andobtaining a time sequence scene library; performing probabilistic load flow calculation under each moment scene to obtain probability distribution of voltage and load flow; evaluating a node voltageout-of-limit risk and a line power flow out-of-limit risk; and performing statistics on risk conditions at each moment to obtain time sequence risk distribution. According to the method, the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaic output and the fluctuation of the load are considered, the time sequence risk of operation of the power distribution network is accurately evaluated, the result can better reflect the actual situation, and a basis can be provided for risk prevention and control of the power distribution network containing wind-solar energy.