The invention relates to the fields of data mining, social networks and causal inference, and discloses a causal inference-based online shopping behavior analysis method and system, which can fully obtain the user behavior characteristics and the interest preferences by fusing the user attribute characteristics, the social behavior characteristics, the historical shopping behavior characteristics, the user relationships and other multi-level and cross-domain characteristics. Through a reasonably designed analysis system, the useless characteristics are removed by using a causal network model, the interference of the noise characteristics is reduced, the causal properties and the behavior motivation of the user behaviors can be explained, and the accuracy of the user shopping behavior prediction is improved.