The invention relates to a motor vehicle travel route determination method based on historical data, which assumes that the travel time of a road section is mutually independent, and is in normal distribution, and the congestion probability is mutually independent, and particularly comprises the following steps that: step 1, setting the origin point and the destination point, resolving traffic network balance problem considering section capacity restrain to obtain a candidate route set and section congestion waiting time, for candidate routes, evaluating the steering delay at crossings, calibrating the difference of the expected value of the travel time of the road section and the standard, and taking the road section lower than 10km / h as a congestion road section to calculate the congestion probability of the road sections; step 2, respectively resolving the waiting time of the candidate routes, determining the travel time distribution of the candidate routes to obtain the alpha-position travel time of the candidate routes, and calculating the congestion probability of the candidate routes; and step 3, displaying the alpha-position travel time, the congestion probability and the waiting time of the candidate routes according to the small to large order of the alpha-position travel time of the candidate routes, and selecting the travel route by a user from the candidate routes.