The invention relates to the use of a certain subset of cytokine markers as prognostic variables of infection status in an individual, and especially as prognostic markers of a patients developing severe infection such as pneumonia, and respiratory tract infection following surgery. The subset of cytokine markers consists of the interleukin cytokines IL-2, IL-7, IL-23, IL-27, and IL-10, and Interferon-γ (INFγ) and Tissue Necrosis Factor-α (TNFα). The markers may be employed as individual prognostic variables of infection status, or they may be used in pairs or other combinations. Generally, the abundance of the markers is correlated with infection status by means of an absolute pre-operative value of biomarker abundance, ratio's of pre-operative to post-operative biomarker abundance, or ratio values for pairs of certain biomarkers within the subset. Typically, cytokine abundance is expressed in terms of mRNA copy number wherein the copy numbers are ideally normalised to a house keeping gene and quantification of mRNA copy number is determined by RT-PCR containing reference serial dilutions of cytokine specific cDNA.