The invention discloses a forecast scheduling method for reducing reservoir
flood regulation starting
water level by considering forecast errors, and belongs to the technical field of flood preventionforecast scheduling. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, performing
flood forecasting feasibility analysis on a reservoir control basin, and identifying forecasting error distributionby adopting a maximum
entropy principle; secondly, formulating a dispatching rule framework for reducing the flood starting
water level of the flood rising section by utilizing a pre-
discharge thoughtfor the whole dispatching
system; optimizing the forecast scheduling framework to obtain a forecast scheduling scheme optimization
point set; thirdly, screening out all optimization point sets meeting the upstream and downstream
flood control safety under the condition of the maximum forecast error from the forecast scheduling scheme optimization
point set; and finally, comprehensively considering forecast errors and different preferences of a
decision maker, and evaluating optimal forecast scheduling scheme points by utilizing a binary comparison method and a fuzzy optimization model to obtain a final forecast scheduling scheme. The method is simple and easy to operate, and the
flood control benefit of the reservoir and the elasticity of a downstream protection point under the flood action are improved under the condition of keeping the interest benefit.