Forecast scheduling method for reducing reservoir flood regulation starting water level by considering forecast errors

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecast scheduling method for reducing reservoir flood regulation starting water level by considering forecast errors, and belongs to the technical field of flood preventionforecast scheduling. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, performing flood forecasting feasibility analysis on a reservoir control basin, and identifying forecasting error distributionby adopting a maximum entropy principle; secondly, formulating a dispatching rule framework for reducing the flood starting water level of the flood rising section by utilizing a pre-discharge thoughtfor the whole dispatching system; optimizing the forecast scheduling framework to obtain a forecast scheduling scheme optimization point set; thirdly, screening out all optimization point sets meeting the upstream and downstream flood control safety under the condition of the maximum forecast error from the forecast scheduling scheme optimization point set; and finally, comprehensively considering forecast errors and different preferences of a decision maker, and evaluating optimal forecast scheduling scheme points by utilizing a binary comparison method and a fuzzy optimization model to obtain a final forecast scheduling scheme. The method is simple and easy to operate, and the flood control benefit of the reservoir and the elasticity of a downstream protection point under the flood action are improved under the condition of keeping the interest benefit.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood control forecasting and dispatching, and relates to a flood control forecasting and dispatching method that considers forecasting errors to reduce the starting water level of a reservoir flood. Background technique [0002] With the continuous advancement of the information age and the continuous improvement of flood forecast accuracy and forecast period, reservoir flood control forecasting and dispatching have been widely developed (Dalian University of Technology, National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office. Reservoir Flood Control Forecasting and Scheduling Method and Application[M ]. China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Press, 1996: 1-6.). According to the different adjustment methods of the flood starting water level, the flood control forecasting and dispatching methods can be mainly divided into flood control forecasting and dispatching methods that raise the starting wate...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the distribution of forecast errors shows that the probability of extreme forecast errors is relatively small, and the scheme that maximizes reservoir benefits under extreme error conditions may not be optimal for other error conditions.

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