A forecasting and dispatching method for reducing the water level of reservoir flooding by considering forecasting errors

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting and dispatching method that considers forecasting errors to reduce the water level of reservoir flooding, belonging to the technical field of flood control forecasting and dispatching. First, the feasibility analysis of flood forecasting is carried out on the watershed controlled by the reservoir, and the maximum entropy principle is used to identify the forecast error distribution; secondly, according to the idea of ​​pre-discharge for the entire dispatching system, a method for reducing the flood start-up regulation water level in the flood rising section is formulated. dispatching rule framework; optimize the forecast dispatching framework to obtain the forecast dispatch scheme optimization point set; thirdly, select all the upstream and downstream flood control safety optimization point sets that satisfy the maximum forecast error from the forecast dispatch scheme optimization point set; finally, Considering the forecast errors and the different preferences of decision makers, the optimal forecast scheduling scheme is evaluated by the binary comparison method and the fuzzy optimal model, and the final forecast scheduling scheme is obtained. The invention is simple and easy to operate, and increases the flood control benefit of the reservoir and the elasticity of the downstream protection point under flood action under the condition of maintaining the benefit of profit.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood control forecasting and dispatching, and relates to a flood control forecasting and dispatching method that considers forecasting errors to reduce the starting water level of a reservoir flood. Background technique [0002] With the continuous advancement of the information age and the continuous improvement of flood forecast accuracy and forecast period, reservoir flood control forecasting and dispatching have been widely developed (Dalian University of Technology, National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office. Reservoir Flood Control Forecasting and Scheduling Method and Application[M ]. China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Press, 1996: 1-6.). According to the different adjustment methods of the flood starting water level, the flood control forecasting and dispatching methods can be mainly divided into flood control forecasting and dispatching methods that raise the starting wate...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the distribution of forecast errors shows that the probability of extreme forecast errors is relatively small, and the scheme that maximizes reservoir benefits under extreme error conditions may not be optimal for other error conditions.

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