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Generalized second-category beta distribution based flood frequency analysis method

A technology of beta distribution and flood frequency, which is applied in instrumentation, calculation, electrical and digital data processing, etc., can solve the problem of low analysis accuracy of flood frequency, and achieve the effect of excellent fitting effect.

Active Publication Date: 2017-02-22
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] For the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the invention provides a flood frequency analysis method based on the generalized second type of beta distribution (GB2), the purpose of which is to introduce the generalized second type of beta distribution into the flood frequency analysis, and According to the characteristics of the distribution function, the maximum entropy principle is used to estimate the parameters of the distribution function, and on this basis, the design flood calculation based on the generalized second-type beta distribution is carried out, thereby solving the technical problem of low accuracy of the flood frequency analysis of the existing analysis technology

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  • Generalized second-category beta distribution based flood frequency analysis method
  • Generalized second-category beta distribution based flood frequency analysis method
  • Generalized second-category beta distribution based flood frequency analysis method

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[0066] Example: Now use the annual maximum daily discharge data of typical hydrological stations A, B and C in a certain watershed to test the model effect of the generalized second-type beta distribution. Based on the method of maximum entropy, the parameters of the model are obtained from the annual maximum daily flow series of the three hydrological stations A, B and C. Table 1 shows the parameters of the flood probability density function of the three hydrological stations A, B and C. figure 2 The fitting results of marginal distributions and probability density curves of the annual maximum flood series at three stations based on GB2 distribution are given. The results show that the fitting effect of GB2 distribution is good and can be used for the calculation of design floods.

[0067]

[0068] Table 1

[0069] Using GB2 distribution, normal distribution, exponential distribution (EXP), Gamma distribution, Gumbel distribution, generalized normal distribution (Generali...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a generalized second-category beta distribution based flood frequency analysis method, and belongs to the field of flood prediction in hydrology. The method introducing generalized second-category beta distribution into flood frequency analysis for the first time includes: building a flood probability density predication model, adopting the maximum entropy principle according to distribution function characteristics to realize parameter deduction of the flood probability density predication model, substituting a historical river flood peak sequence into a parameter deduction equation to work out parameters, then substituting the parameters into the flood probability density predication model, and finally utilizing the complete flood probability density predication model to perform probability prediction of massive floods. The flood probability analysis method is extraordinarily suitable for hydrologic frequency analysis, fitting effect is basically superior to that of other traditional distribution in hydrology, and a more effective approach is provided for hydrologic frequency analysis.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of flood forecasting, and more specifically relates to a flood frequency analysis method based on a generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2). Background technique [0002] Floods are generally defined by the probability density of flood occurrence, such as once in 20 years, once in 50 years, and once in a hundred years. The purpose of the flood frequency analysis is to deduce the design flood value of the once-in-year T flood through the extension of the frequency curve. If the calculated design flood value is large, the scale is too large, which will increase investment and cause waste; if the calculated design flood value is low, the scale is too small, which may lead to engineering accidents and losses under unfavorable hydrological conditions. [0003] Therefore, carrying out high-precision flood frequency analysis is the primary issue in the design and planning of water conservancy and hydropower p...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00Y02A10/40
Inventor 陈璐何典灿黄康笛熊丰
Owner HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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