The invention discloses an airline passenger demand prediction method. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, obtaining factor data influencing
civil aviation market demand, wherein the factor data comprises a two-place
aviation passenger flow gross, a two-place airport capacity, a distance between two places, a
ticket price level and a fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail; 2, establishing a two-place passenger demand prediction model: two-place passenger demand=f (the two-place
aviation passenger flow gross, the two-place airport capacity, the distance between the two places, the
ticket price level and the fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail), wherein the two-place passenger demand is positively related to the two-place
aviation passenger flow gross and the distance between the two places, and the two-place passenger demand is negatively related to the distance between the two places, the
ticket price level and the fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail; and 3, substituting the factor data, influencing the
civil aviation market demand, obtained in the step 1 into the two-place passenger demand prediction model established in the step 2 so as to calculate an airline passenger demand result. The method is capable of comprehensively considering the market and economic development condition, andeffectively predicting airline passenger demands.