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Airline passenger demand prediction method

A demand forecasting and passenger technology, applied in the field of civil aviation information services, can solve problems such as the impact of trade and personal income levels, and achieve good forecasting accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-02-16
FEIYOU TECH CO LTD
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the demand for air passengers between the two places will also be affected by the level of trade and personal income between the two places over time

Method used

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  • Airline passenger demand prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The content of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0034] Factors affecting the demand of the civil aviation market, from a micro perspective, it is mainly affected by price, available transport capacity, air traffic control, airport capacity, purpose of passengers going back and forth between two places (tourism, business trip, family visit, etc.), etc.; from a macro perspective Look, the air traffic between the two places is affected by the economic development level (GDP) of the two places, the distance between the two places, the population of the two places, and other modes of transportation (high-speed rail).

[0035] According to the analysis of historical data, it is known that there is a correlation between the air traffic volume of the two places and the total air passenger flow of the two places, the distance between the two places, the capacity of the airports of the two places, the ticket price level, and...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an airline passenger demand prediction method. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, obtaining factor data influencing civil aviation market demand, wherein the factor data comprises a two-place aviation passenger flow gross, a two-place airport capacity, a distance between two places, a ticket price level and a fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail; 2, establishing a two-place passenger demand prediction model: two-place passenger demand=f (the two-place aviation passenger flow gross, the two-place airport capacity, the distance between the two places, the ticket price level and the fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail), wherein the two-place passenger demand is positively related to the two-place aviation passenger flow gross and the distance between the two places, and the two-place passenger demand is negatively related to the distance between the two places, the ticket price level and the fact whether the two places are connected by a high-speed rail; and 3, substituting the factor data, influencing the civil aviation market demand, obtained in the step 1 into the two-place passenger demand prediction model established in the step 2 so as to calculate an airline passenger demand result. The method is capable of comprehensively considering the market and economic development condition, andeffectively predicting airline passenger demands.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting airline passenger demand, and belongs to the technical field of civil aviation information services. Background technique [0002] Airlines make market forecasts to plan services to better meet market demand; from the perspective of forecast period division, it can be divided into short-term forecasts, mid-term forecasts and long-term forecasts: [0003] Short-term forecasting generally refers to a forecast period of 1 month to 18 months. It provides a reference for airlines’ daily operation decisions, mainly including airlines’ annual plans and flight plans. [0004] The medium-term forecast is a forecast period of 18 months to 5 years, which provides reference for airlines' development plans and market competition plans. [0005] Long-term forecasting is a forecast period greater than 5 years, and it is an important part of the airline's business plan. [0006] How to better predict the aviation dema...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/40
Inventor 黄文野郑洪峰王渊
Owner FEIYOU TECH CO LTD
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