A human error mechanism modeling method considering path dependence comprises the following steps that 1, human-computer interaction tasks are analyzed, and bottom layer operation types and specific cognitive functions called by the bottom layer operation types are clarified, including basic task analysis, cognitive behavior analysis and human error mode analysis; 2, defining an abnormal information mode, and judging the correlation between the abnormal information mode and a human error mode caused by cognitive confusion; 3, determining basic cognitive resource requirements of each task; 4, evaluating six stable performance forming factors, namely the PSFs level; 5, performing correlation adjustment on the human error probability after PSFs adjustment according to cognitive overload and cognitive confusion so as to obtain a human error probability considering path dependence; Through the above steps, a human error mechanism model is provided, the correlation between human errors and other abnormal events in the same human-computer interaction evolution path is established, and on the basis, the problem of influence of path dependence on the human error probability is solved.