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Human error probability calculation method and device

A technology of human error probability and calculation method, applied in the fields of information science and human factors engineering

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-10-07
HUNAN INST OF TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a human error probability calculation method and device to solve the technical problem that a new method is needed to effectively evaluate the human error probability of the team when the analysis background of human accidents changes.

Method used

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  • Human error probability calculation method and device

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0083] refer to figure 1 , a preferred embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating the probability of human error, including:

[0084] Step 101, determine the operator's detection error probability p det .

[0085] After the accident, the operator in the main control room may fail to detect the accident. If the detection fails, it may lead to the inability to recognize the accident in time, resulting in the failure of the operation. Therefore, the operator’s detection error probability is The probability that an operator will fail to detect an accident.

[0086] Specifically, the calculation of the operator's detection error probability of an accident is divided into the following two situations:

[0087] (1) Accidents occur under normal working conditions

[0088] Under normal working conditions, if the operator fails to find the accident in the inquiry, or fails to perceive the relevant alarm signal, the operator will fail to enter the Disk Oper...

Embodiment 2

[0099] refer to figure 2 , Embodiment two is a supplementary explanation carried out on the basis of embodiment one. Wherein, step 102 includes:

[0100] Step 1021, determine the diagnosis error probability p of the team diag .

[0101] Further, determine the diagnosis error probability p of the team diag Including: Determining the operator diagnostic error probability p diag，RO ;Determine the coordinator's diagnostic error probability p diag，US ;According to the coordinator diagnosis error probability p diag，US , to determine the probability p that the coordinator corrects the operator's diagnostic error rec，diag ;according to p diag =p diag，RO ×p rec，diag Calculate the p diag .

[0102] Specifically, first determine the probability of the operator’s diagnostic error p diag，RO . The random process at time t 0 Under the condition that the state is known, the random process at time t>t 0 The conditional distribution of the state in which the process is at t 0 T...

Embodiment 3

[0162] This embodiment is a supplementary description based on the above embodiments.

[0163] refer to image 3 , in determining the operator's detection error probability p det After that, determine the cognitive error probability p of the team cog Before, it also includes step 105, screening monitoring nodes, and the screening method is:

[0164] Exclude monitoring nodes that the system can handle automatically;

[0165] For monitoring nodes with alarm signal assistance, if the monitoring node fails, the monitoring node will be excluded;

[0166] Exclude monitoring nodes that do not pose a significant impact;

[0167] The selected monitoring nodes can provide necessary and sufficient information for diagnosing the current accident, and the accidents that are more serious than the current accident can be excluded through the information.

[0168] Since the operator needs to perform a lot of monitoring content after the accident, not all nodes need to be considered in th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a human error probability calculation method and device. The method comprises: determining an operator detection error probability pdet; determining a team or group cognitive error probability pcog; determining a team or group operation error probability pope; and calculating a team or group human error probability p=pdet+pcog+pope. According to the human error probability calculation method and the human error probability calculation device disclosed by the invention, the team or group human error probability is divided into the operator detection error probability, the team or group cognitive error probability and the team or group operation error probability, and then the operator detection error probability, the team or group cognitive error probability and the team or group operation error probability are calculated respectively; and the sum of the three probabilities is used as a team or group human error probability, so that the purpose of effectively evaluating the team or group human error probability is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of information science and human factors engineering, and in particular, to a method and device for calculating human error probability. Background technique [0002] Digital control system (Digital control system, referred to as DCS) has been widely used in nuclear power, aviation, petrochemical and other fields, and the importance of human-computer interaction has also attracted widespread attention. Effective human-computer interaction can promote system reliability and security. But at the same time, human-computer interaction is the direct source of human error. Once there is an error in human-computer interaction, it may lead to mission failure or catastrophic accidents. [0003] With the wide application of DCS, the accident handling procedure has changed from the previous event-oriented procedure (Event-oriented Procedure, referred to as EOP) to the state-oriented procedure (State-oriented Procedure, referre...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F3/0484
Inventor 张力戴立操青涛洪俊胡鸿
Owner HUNAN INST OF TECH
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