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Human error probability calculating method and human error probability calculating device

A human error probability and calculation method technology, applied in the field of information science and human factors engineering, can solve the problem that the human error probability cannot be quantitatively and effectively evaluated

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-09-16
HUNAN INST OF TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a human error probability calculation method and device to solve the technical problem of being unable to quantitatively and effectively evaluate the human error probability of an operator in a control room after an accident

Method used

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  • Human error probability calculating method and human error probability calculating device
  • Human error probability calculating method and human error probability calculating device
  • Human error probability calculating method and human error probability calculating device

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment 1

[0069] refer to figure 1 , a preferred embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating the probability of human error, including:

[0070] Step 101, determine the detection error probability p det .

[0071] After the accident, the operator in the main control room may fail to detect the accident. If the detection fails, it may lead to the inability to recognize the accident in time, resulting in the failure of the operation. Therefore, the detection error probability is the failure The probability of successfully detecting an accident.

[0072] Furthermore, when an accident occurs under normal working conditions, the detection error probability p det =10 -5 ;

[0073] When an accident occurs during the accident handling process, the detection error probability p det =0.

[0074] Specifically, the calculation of the detection error probability of an accident is divided into the following two situations:

[0075] (1) Accidents occur under normal wo...

Embodiment 2

[0087] refer to figure 2 , Embodiment 2 is a supplementary description based on Embodiment 1, wherein step 102 includes:

[0088] Step 1021, determine the error probability p of diagnostic behavior diag .

[0089] The diagnostic action consists of a paired cycle of monitoring and status evaluation. When the state of DCS changes, the operator needs to determine the current state level of DCS by monitoring the changes of system parameters. Assume that at time t, the system provides N parameters to represent the state of DCS, and the operator monitors these parameters in sequence according to the electronic procedures. Every time the operator observes a parameter, he will update his state model according to the meaning of the parameter. For example: the operator observes parameter 1 at time t1, interprets the meaning of the parameter through his mental model, and obtains state model 1. State model 1 drives the operator to transfer to parameter 2 at time t2. The same process o...

Embodiment 3

[0095] This embodiment is a supplementary description based on the above embodiments.

[0096] refer to image 3 , in determining the detection error probability p det After that, determine the diagnostic behavior error probability p diag Before, it also includes step 105, screening monitoring nodes, and the screening method is:

[0097] Exclude monitoring nodes that the system can handle automatically;

[0098] For monitoring nodes with alarm signal assistance, if the monitoring node fails, the monitoring node will be excluded;

[0099] Exclude monitoring nodes that do not pose a significant impact;

[0100] The selected monitoring nodes can provide necessary and sufficient information for diagnosing the current accident, that is, the selected monitoring nodes can provide neither redundant nor indispensable information for diagnosing the accident, and the information that is more serious than the current accident can be excluded. An accident, an accident that is more sev...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a human error probability calculating method and a human error probability calculating device. The human error probability calculating method comprises the following steps of determining detection error probability (pdet); determining cognition error probability (pcog); determining operation error probability (pope); and calculating human error probability which is equal to the sum of the detection error probability (pdet), the cognition error probability (pcog) and the operation error probability (pope). The human error probability is divided into the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability, the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability are calculated respectively, and the sum of the detection error probability, the cognition error probability and the operation error probability serves as the human error probability of an operator, so that the purpose of quantitatively analyzing the human error probability of the operator after an accident occurs is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of information science and human factors engineering, and in particular, to a method and device for calculating human error probability. Background technique [0002] Digital control system (Digital control system, referred to as DCS) has been widely used in nuclear power, aviation, petrochemical and other fields, and the importance of human-computer interaction has also attracted widespread attention. Effective human-computer interaction can promote the reliability and safety of the system, and new human-system interfaces such as computerized procedure system, advanced alarm system and graphical information display system have improved the performance of the operator. [0003] DCS includes large-screen system overview display and computer-based terminal display (Video display unit, referred to as VDU). VDU can display a large amount of information through screen scrolling, window overlapping, and hierarchical displ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F3/0484
Inventor 张力洪俊胡鸿青涛戴立操李鹏程
Owner HUNAN INST OF TECH
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