Adaptive video encoding based on predicted wireless channel conditions. Based on at least one of a number of transmitter side indications of the available throughput of a wireless channel for video delivery, an encoder rate adaptation mechanism generates an estimate of the supportable throughput of the wireless channel under different operating conditions. An encoding parameter, such as encoder bit rate, is subsequently altered based on the estimated throughput value. In one instance, transmitter side throughput indicia is used to generate target encoder bit rates for multiple potential PHY data rates / channel MCS selections that may be used in video delivery. In anticipation of or immediately following a transition to one such PHY data rate / MCS selection, the encoder bit rate is altered in accordance with an associated target bit rate. In another mode, average transmit queue latency information is used to further regulate the encoder bit rate.