The invention discloses a
performance prediction and fault alarm method for a
photovoltaic power station. The method comprises the following steps of: a, setting the
station of the
power station; b, setting the
operation mode of the
power station; c, judging whether required real-
time data or historical data exists or not; d, predicting the performance of the
power station through an experience model if the state in the step a is that a new
photovoltaic power station is required to be designed and the required real-
time data or historical data in the step c does not exist, and predicting the performance of the power
station through a data drive
performance model if the required real-
time data or historical data in the step c exists; e, predicting the performance of the power
station through the data drive
performance model or a
polynomial regression model if the
photovoltaic power station in the step a is operated and the required real-time data or historical data in the step c exists, and predicting the performance of the power station through the experience model if the required real-time data or historical data in the step c does not exist; f, comparing actual performance with the predicted performance, and performing fault alarm; and g, correcting the models on line by a Kalman filtering method and returning to the step c, and otherwise, directly returning to the step e. By the method,
solar energy resources can be utilized to the maximum extent, and power utilization cost can be reduced; and the accuracy of
performance prediction and fault diagnosis is improved.