38results about How to "Extended forecast period" patented technology

The invention discloses a method for forecasting water burst flood peak and peak time for a karst tunnel underground river. The method comprises the following steps: (1) computing point rainfall; (2) determining areal rainfall according to the point rainfall; (3) computing effective precipitation according to the areal rainfall; (4) computing time interval unit hydrograph; (5) computing effective precipitation unit hydrograph according to the time interval unit hydrograph; (6) computing surface runoff according to the effective precipitation and the effective precipitation unit hydrograph; (7) computing subsurface runoff; (8) adding the surface runoff at each time interval and the subsurface runoff at the corresponding time intervals to obtain flood discharge; (9) performing fitting on value of the flood discharge to obtain a flood hygrograph; and (10) obtaining the flood peak and the corresponding peak time on the flood hygrograph and determining construction time for a karst tunnel according to the flood peak and the corresponding peak time. According to the method provided by the invention, the water burst flood peak in the tunnel and the arrival time of the flood peak can be accurately forecasted, so that the construction time for the tunnel can be reasonably arranged, and the lives of people and the safety of mechanical equipment can be ensured.

The present invention relates to a method for forecasting floods of medium and small rivers based on multi-feature fusion technology and its forecasting system, belonging to the field of water conservancy information technology processing, comprising the following steps: S1, obtaining the hourly rainfall of each rainfall station for historical flood events and actual flood events Observational data; then perform similarity feature matching on these rainfall observation data to obtain multiple different matching results, and put the above multiple different matching results into different sets; S2. Adopt the principal component analysis voting algorithm based on water conservancy data , vote on the matching results of each hydrological feature, and find the flood event with the highest number of votes, so as to obtain the most similar flood process, which is used for flood forecasting of small and medium rivers. The invention solves the problem of flood forecasting of medium and small rivers in humid and semi-arid and semi-humid regions of my country, and improves the precision of flood forecasting and forecasting of medium and small rivers.

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method based on synthetic flow and shape fitting and relates to the technical field of hydrological simulation and forecasting. The method comprises the steps that a correlation between target cross section flow and upstream cross section flow is inquired and forecasted; distributed hydrological model modeling is conducted on forecasting drainage basin,and obtained runoff generation and confluence parameters of each calculation unit in a distributed hydrological model are calibrated; according to flood peak data of each time and flood volume data ofeach time of a forecasting target cross section, the corresponding relation of the flood peak and the flood volume is fit; corresponding exponential-type water subsiding curve parameters in the actual water subsiding process are inquired; a flow forecasting result of the forecasting target cross section in the confluence forecast period is obtained through flow synthesis; the forecasting flood volume and the forecasting flood peak of the forecasting target cross section in the flood on the spot are acquired; the corresponding flow forecasting result which meets a preset requirement is used asa final result of flood forecasting of each time. According to the flood forecasting method, the forecast period of flood forecasting is prolonged, so that the forecasting result is more reasonable and precise.

The invention relates to a novel distributed Hebei model construction method and application thereof. The novel distributed Hebei model construction method comprises the following steps that firstly, drainage basin generalization is carried out; secondly, grids serve as study units, a Hebei model is used for establishing a grid runoff producing module; thirdly, a lag-and-route method and a Muskingum method are used for establishing grid-by-grid distributed confluence modules. The mature Hebei model is used for conducting grid runoff producing calculation, then, grid-by-grid confluence calculation is carried out, the situation that the space distribution of factors such as an underlying surface is uneven is fully considered in the model, the model can be coupled with an atmospheric mode, the forecast accuracy of storm flood is improved, the meeting period is prolonged, and the novel distributed Hebei model construction method has important significance for storm flood forecasting, a drainage basin water circulation mechanism, water resource planning, unified water resource management scheduling in the northern semiarid and semihumid regions in China.

The present invention discloses a real -time flood forecasting intelligent method based on face recognition algorithms. By extracting and identifying the characteristic factor that affects the evolution of the flood, it clearly affects the factors and indicators of the flooding process of the field, and establishes a characteristic factor combination and historical field floods.One -to -one correspondence; by establishing a static parameter library, the combination of different feature factor, the matching relationship between the flood process and hydrological forecasting model and parameter of the scene; when facing the current floods, the current hydrological meteorological conditions and history are achieved through the face recognition algorithmThe matching of the farming process corresponds to the combination of feature factor combinations, and then realize the real -time forecast of the flood process.

The invention provides a land-atmosphere coupling-based method and a system for flood forecast of minor watersheds, which are used for solving the problem of low accuracy for the flood forecast of the minor watersheds. The method comprises the following steps: setting model parameters; inputting initial data; judging a runoff-generation manner through analyzing the initial data, calculating surface runoff if the runoff-generating manner is infiltration excess runoff, and taking the surface runoff as simulation runoff; calculating the infiltration amount of soil if the runoff-generating manner is saturation excess runoff, and calculating base runoff and subsurface runoff by using the soil infiltration amount; calculating to obtain the simulation runoff according to the base runoff and the subsurface runoff when the soil is unsaturated; and further calculating the surface runoff and calculating to obtain the simulation runoff according to the base runoff, the subsurface runoff and the surface runoff when the soil is saturated. The land-atmosphere coupling-based method and the system provided by the invention are suitable for calculating the simulation runoff of the minor watersheds, and the calculating result is more accurate through the combination of theory and practice, thus the land-atmosphere coupling-based method and the system are suitable for short-term or ultra-short-term runoff forecast and have high forecast accuracy.

The invention provides a medium and long term runoff prediction method based on numerical rainfall forecast, which is a product based on numerical rainfall forecast of the European mid-term weather forecast center in the future six months, is fused with a short term runoff forecast model, and greatly increases the forecast period of runoff forecast and the forecast precision of runoff forecast.