Coupled numerical meteorological and hydrological aggregate forecasting reservoir scheduling risk decision method

Abstract

The invention discloses a coupled numerical meteorological and hydrological aggregate forecasting reservoir scheduling risk decision method comprising the steps that the numerical meteorological and hydrological aggregate forecasting model of the reservoir basin is established, and the flood process of the basin is forecasted in a rolling way; the uncertainty of hydrological aggregate forecastingis assessed by using the Bayes model averaging method, the Bayes posteriori probability is reckoned and the probability of the flood scene in the future is updated in real time; a flood scene tree isconstructed by using the method based on the probability distance on the basis of the hydrological aggregate forecasting result and branch cutting of the flood scene tree is performed; and a reservoiroptimal scheduling random change constrained programming model is established, the optimal scheduling decision of the reservoir is solved by using the optimization method and the decision risk is assessed. With application of the method, the forecast period of hydrological forecasting can be effectively extended and the forecast precision can be enhanced, and the uncertainty between modes and different data assimilation schemes is comprehensively considered; and the method is suitable for medium-and-short-term real-time reservoir scheduling and can significantly enhance the reliability of thereservoir scheduling decision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to hydrological forecasting and reservoir scheduling methods, in particular to a reservoir scheduling risk decision-making method coupled with numerical meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasting. Background technique [0002] The weather system is an extremely unstable nonlinear dynamical system, and the small errors in the simulation process may be gradually amplified as time goes on, and eventually evolve into the uncertainty of the weather system forecast. Affected by underlying surface factors, the flood process in a watershed is a more complex dynamic process, and its forecast involves many conceptual hydrological models and parameters, which will lead to uncertainty in hydrological forecast in every link of hydrological forecast . The occurrence and development of the flood process in the basin is closely related to the weather system and underlying surface factors. As an important basis for reservoir scheduling ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, initial errors, model errors, and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere lead to large uncertainties in the results of a single deterministic numerical weather forecast

In real-time hydrological forecasting, if the forecast results of a single numerical meteorological model are directly used, the application of numerical meteorological forecast in the field of hydrological forecast may be introduced into a misunderstanding, resulting in large errors in hydrological forecast results

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