Reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control risk analysis method coupled with meteorological-hydrological uncertainty

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control risk analysis method coupled with meteorological and hydrological uncertainty, and the method comprises the following steps:calculating a deterministic flood limit water level dynamic control domain based on a two-stage prediction pre-discharge method; collecting and sorting data information, and obtaining risk source sample series data for distribution fitting; deducing a distribution density function of the total water storage surcharge, and calculating distribution parameters; defining and calculating a surcharge risk, and performing risk assessment and decision making. According to the reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control risk analysis model coupled with meteorological-hydrological uncertainty, numerical weather forecast information is applied to flood resource utilization in the flood season, and the flood resource utilization potential is improved; a forecasting pre-discharge method risk analysis model is established, risk decision information guidance is provided for a decision maker in real-time scheduling, and a reasonable and feasible flood resource utilization strategy is formulated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a decision-making technology for reservoir flood resource dispatching in the field of water conservancy engineering, in particular to a risk analysis method for dynamic control of reservoir flood limit water level coupled with meteorological-hydrological uncertainty. Background technique [0002] In order to ensure the safety of flood control, the water stored in the reservoir during the flood season must not exceed the design flood limit water level, which is called the "flood limit water level static control" mode. The static control of the flood limit water level always uses the full flood control storage capacity to meet small probability events such as design floods and check floods. Although flood control safety is guaranteed to a certain extent, it often leads to the reservoir having no water to store after the flood, which affects the benefits of prosperity. It is an important measure to coordinate the contradiction bet...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, meteorological and hydrological forecasts are uncertain, which leads to certain risks in the utilization of reservoir flood resources based on forecast information

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