The invention discloses a gray
system submarine oil and
gas pipeline drop object
corrosion reliability evaluation method, comprising: establishing a gray
differential equation, calculating gray
system parameter values according to pipeline
corrosion depth by least square
estimation, and using a traditional gray
system to perform a
simulation Calculate the simulated value; then, according to the inconsistency between the simulated derivative
recovery value and the cumulative reduction value, in order to reduce the error caused by the reciprocating operation, the residual error is used to correct the simulated value for a secondary
simulation, and the primary predicted value and the secondary predicted value are compared. Values are combined to obtain a complete
subsea pipeline
corrosion correction model for prediction, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of pipeline corrosion depth. Finally, taking a certain
subsea pipeline test section as an example, using the gray system of
tail section residual error correction to predict the pipeline corrosion depth Through
simulation, compared with the traditional gray system, the prediction accuracy has been significantly improved, so that the pipeline can be repaired or replaced in time, thereby reducing the resulting economic losses and safety hazards.