111 results about "Delphi method" patented technology

Provided are a system and method for predicting a cyber threat. The system and method collect various variables and synthetically predict the frequency, dangerousness, possibility, and time of the occurrence of a cyber threat including hacking, a worm / virus, a Denial of Service (DoS) attack, illegal system access, a malicious code, a social engineering attack, system / data falsification, cyber terror / war, weakness exploitation, etc., using a time-series analysis method and a Delphi method, and inform a user in advance of the prediction result, thereby enabling the user to prepare against the cyber threat.

The invention relates to a mountainous area highway landslide risk evaluation model. The method is based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process and other methods to calculate the membership influencing hazard and vulnerability of highway side slope so as to obtain index evaluation level of hazard and vulnerability of slide slope risk, on the basis, adopts method of risk evaluation matrix to carry out risk evaluation of talus side slope. The model can predict, recognize, assess and analyze the slide slope risk of side slope that is possible to meet, and on the basis effectively cope with the risk to avoid or reduce the hazard of landslide geological disaster on national economy and life and property of people, and can take measures such as corresponding prevention and treatment on the basis of judgment and prediction of development and change trend of the landslide body.

The utility model discloses a present city power network comprehensive evaluation system based on analytical hierarchy process and Delphi method. The system classifies and layers the characters of the city power network and then forms an integrated system including a plurality of layers according to the relationships and the differences between the characters of the city power network. The endmost character of the system is first evaluated, and then calculation is performed one layer after another according to definite calculation methods, finally a comprehensive and integrated evaluation of the city power network is obtained. The higher the comprehensive score, the better the whole situation of the city power network; namely, the construction technology rationality, the operation safety, the power supply quality and the operation economy of the power network all reach to a high level.

A comprehensive assessment method for running of an intelligent power distribution network includes the steps of firstly, building a comprehensive assessment index system according to the running characteristic of the intelligent power distribution network; secondly, defining application range of the assessment method in terms of preference information, quantity of plans and relation between the quantity of plans and the quantity of attributes on the basis of investigation of the conventional comprehensive assessment method for the power distribution network, selecting the analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the Delphi method as theoretical supports for comprehensive assessment according to real condition of assessment of running of the intelligent power distribution network, and on the basis of the three methods, providing comprehensive assessment methods and processes which include important links such as weight setting, scoring standard setting and assessment result analyzing. The comprehensive assessment index system relates to five indexes of safety, reliability, economy, high quality and intellectuality. The comprehensive assessment method has high practicability, feasibility and promotion and application value, and can provide important basis for scheduling and planning of the power distribution network and for management staff to make decision.

The invention discloses a highway tunnel operation environment safety risk automatic judgment method. The highway tunnel operation environment safety risk automatic judgment method, starting from comprehensive tunnel operation environments in four major aspects, that is, road environment index, traffic circulation environment index, traffic engineering facility environment index and climatic environment, extracts main evaluation index of the highway tunnel operation environment through a Delphi method, carries out sensitivity analysis on the evaluation index, establishes a highway tunnel operation environment evaluation index system, determines weight of each evaluation index through an AHP method and an entropy weight method, and carries out safety evaluation on the highway tunnel operation environment through a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

The invention provides an evaluation method based on a voltage reactive power control system in a grid system. Weights are distributed through the utilization of the fuzzy linear transformation theory and the maximum membership degree principle, by taking factors relevant to an evaluated object into consideration and according to the degree of influences of different indexes on the evaluated object, and then reasonable comprehensive evaluation is given. The method includes the steps that firstly, data of the voltage reactive power control system in a grid are acquired; secondly, an index system of a hierarchical model of first level indexes and second level indexes is formulated; thirdly, system running is analyzed and summarized according to running data, analysis data and running state information of all modules, and then running state parameters and the running state of the voltage reactive power control system are acquired, wherein the first level indexes and the second level indexes in the index system serve as analysis and computation objects of the voltage reactive power control system; fourthly, a judgment set of a classification model is determined; fifthly, a comprehensive analysis hierarchical structure is formed through the Delphi method; sixthly, the weights of the indexes are determined; seventhly, comprehensive evaluation of the highest layer A of the comprehensive evaluation index system is computed according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and model.

The invention relates to a power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on combinational weighting and fuzzy scoring. The method comprises the following steps of 1) weighting the reliability indexes of the power distribution network by use of a combinational weighting method composed of one subjective weighting method and (s-1) objective weighting methods, 2) getting the expected value of the weight vector of each index weight coefficient of each weighting method in the combinational weighting method, 3) calculating the subjective weight probability coefficient alpha i and the objective weight probability coefficient beta I of the i evaluation index by use of an expectancy method, 4) obtaining the probability coefficients alpha and beta of the subjective and objective weights in a combination weight by use of the least square method, 5) obtaining a combination weight vector omega according to the weight vector of each index weight coefficient of each weighting method in the combinational weighting method, and 6) performing quantitative scoring on the reliability index data of the power distribution network by use of a fuzzy scoring mechanism for determining a fuzzy typical point based on the delphi method, and obtaining the overall quantitative scoring result of the power distribution network. Compared with the prior art, the power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on combinational weighting and fuzzy scoring is capable of enabling the weight of each evaluation index to be more reasonable.

The invention relates to a method for evaluating battery performance based on a Delphi method and the grey relation theory. The method comprises the steps of determining evaluation indexes of the battery performance, setting up an analytical sequence, utilizing the Delphi method for determining the weight of factors affecting the battery performance, conducting dimension removal processing on actual values and ideal values of indexes of a battery to be evaluated, determining a reference matrix, setting up a grey relation model of battery comprehensive performance evaluation, obtaining the relation coefficient Xi0i(k) between the kth evaluation index of the ith evaluation object and the reference value according to grey correlation analysis, calculating the relation coefficient, and obtaining the relation degree of the battery according to the grey relation model of the battery comprehensive performance and the weight determined by the Delphi method. According to the technical scheme, a multi-index comprehensive evaluation method is provided for the performance evaluation of the battery, the one-sidedness of serving the single index as the evaluation criterion is overcome, and the reliable evaluation method is provided for the performance evaluation, screening and matching of the battery.

Provided are a system and method for predicting a cyber threat. The system and method collect various variables and synthetically predict the frequency, dangerousness, possibility, and time of the occurrence of a cyber threat including hacking, a worm / virus, a Denial of Service (DoS) attack, illegal system access, a malicious code, a social engineering attack, system / data falsification, cyber terror / war, weakness exploitation, etc., using a time-series analysis method and a Delphi method, and inform a user in advance of the prediction result, thereby enabling the user to prepare against the cyber threat.

The invention discloses an asset dependence relation-based information security risk evaluation method and system. The method comprises the following steps of acquiring an asset range in a to-be-evaluated information system, and dividing the asset into blocks; identifying threats, vulnerability and asset significance of the to-be-evaluated information system, and acquiring significance value of the asset, threat value of the threat, and a vulnerability value of the vulnerability; calculating to build a security dependence relation matrix of assets by using a dependence structure matrix, determining a risk conduction coefficient of the assets by using a Delphi method and building a risk conduction relation; and calculating interior risk value and an exterior risk value of each block and overall risk value of the to-be-evaluated information system according to the risk conduction relation and asset significance, threat value and vulnerability value. The method can acquire a weak link ofthe system more accurately, and acquire more reliable information security risk evaluation results.

The invention belonging to the technical field of medical data processing discloses an intelligent-algorithm-based drug safety confidence index system and a construction method. The construction method comprises: research data are collected; the research data are analyzed and a comprehensive evaluation index is obtained by a corresponding delphi method; and a drug safety evaluation index system is constructed and a PSO-BP-neural-network drug safety evaluation model is improved. The system is composed of a target layer, a project layer, a factor layer, and an index layer. According to the invention, a corresponding evaluation mode needs to be constructed in a future drug safety index analysis and the algorithm, data, and various factor weight ratios of drug safety evaluation index are analyzed in the evaluation result, so that the selected data source becomes accurate, the used algorithm meets the practical situation, and the constructed drug safety evaluation index is based on scientific, people-oriented, truth-seeking, rigorous, innovative principles.

The invention relates to a line loss comprehensive-management benchmarking evaluating system and method for county-level power enterprises. The line loss comprehensive-management benchmarking evaluating method includes acquiring and managing power indicators of the county-level power enterprises, and setting up a county-level power enterprise model according to power level and power structure; scientifically and reasonably selecting evaluation indicators and weight relations by an AHP level analysis method, and setting up a county-level power enterprise line loss management and evaluation model from planning, managing, operating and technique; determining weights of dimension and indicators in the model by a Delphi method and devising objective indicator evaluation standard; constructing a line loss comprehensive-management evaluating system of the county-level power enterprises to evaluate line loss management multi-dimensional benchmarking and forming line loss centralized management, professional management and evaluation indicator grading closed-loop management mechanism. Accordingly, line loss lean management level is improved.

The invention discloses an evaluation method for a soft foundation treatment scheme. The method comprises the following multiple steps of: a. classifying whether soft soil is subjected to shallow, medium and deep treatment by applying a case-based reasoning technology; b. determining an evaluation index system with a Delphi method; c. obtaining an evaluation index weight with a combined weighting method combining an entropy weight method with an analytic hierarchy process; d. screening evaluation indexes by applying fuzzy cluster analysis; and e. calculating a grey evaluation weight by applying grey correlation analysis in a grey theory, establishing a fuzzy weight matrix and calculating a final evaluation result with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the method, different theories and methods are applied in links of evaluation work, so that the defect of excessive dependence on expert experience in a conventional evaluation method for a soft foundation treatment scheme is overcome, both expert opinions and actual situations can be reflected, and the reliability of a comprehensive evaluation result is high.

A method for planning city electric network based on data envelope analysis includes setting up comprehensive evaluation index set of planned region, dividing planned region to be several sub-regions and selecting a typical one to carry out medium voltage distribution plan, collecting required data as per actual condition and selecting relevant index as input index and another relevant index as output index of data envelope analysis model, using Derfeil manner to carry out qualitative treatment on data and substituting data in DEA model for making decision as per super-efficiency value.

The invention discloses an automatic assessment system and method for cross-border input and transmission risk of infectious diseases, which belong to the technical field of disease transmission and control. The system comprises an initial indicator formulation module, an initial indicator assessment module and an assessment platform construction module. According to the invention, two levels of expert consultation are used; the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method are used to quantify the weight value of the cross-border input and transmission risk of infectious diseases, and therisk value of a risk point can be quantified; through the construction of the automatic risk assessment system, the cross-border input and transmission risk of five key infectious diseases can be assessed in real time in border areas; and the problems that the human, material and financial costs of high-quality risk assessment of grassroots disease control institutions in border areas are high, and the assessment report lags behind the development trend of the epidemic situation of infectious diseases are solved.

The invention discloses a fuzzy clustering analysis method-based method for determining a critical rainfall threshold of a landslide. The method comprises the steps of building an algorithm empirical model, determining the critical rainfall threshold of the landslide, and performing fuzzy clustering factor selection through a Delphi method; based on this, performing fuzzy clustering analysis of the critical rainfall threshold of the landslide, creating a data matrix and a standard data matrix, and establishing a fuzzy similar matrix; and finally performing fuzzy clustering and determining the critical rainfall threshold. According to the fuzzy clustering analysis method-based method for determining the critical rainfall threshold of the landslide, the rainfall threshold is determined by fully considering influence factors of regions through strict mathematic algorithm derivation, statistics technologies and physical means. The method is high in accuracy; the requirements of current landslide forecasting and warning can be met; the threshold accuracy is greatly improved; and reasonable determination of the critical rainfall threshold plays an important role for guaranteeing the landslide forecasting and warning accuracy.

The invention relates to a method for dynamic risk assessment and management of foundation pit engineering, comprising the following steps: 1) using Delphi method to identify risk factors of foundation pit engineering and classifying them; 2) according to the risk occurrence probability, risk loss and risk controllability of foundation pit engineering 3) Using the improved hierarchical method based on triangular fuzzy numbers and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk of foundation pit engineering; 4) According to the risk evaluation results, put forward risk response decisions; 5) The risk of foundation pit engineering is tracked and monitored. If there is a new risk source, return to step 1), and carry out risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation, risk decision-making and risk tracking again; if there is no new risk source, the risk management process ends. The invention overcomes the disadvantage that the static risk assessment does not consider that the risk factors change with the development of the project construction, and the risk assessment index and classification standard are more systematic and comprehensive, and the risk assessment model is more accurate and reasonable.

The invention discloses a numerical simulation-based city low impact development optimization configuration method. The method comprises the following steps of performing numerical simulation by utilizing a mathematic model to obtain hydrological and water quality data; according to the hydrological and water quality data, establishing a city low impact development optimization evaluation system;determining index scores in the system; in combination with a Delphi method and an analytic hierarchy process, determining index weights in the system; and in combination with the index scores and weights, screening out a city low impact development optimal scheme. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the defect of insufficiently comprehensive consideration of factors incity low impact development is overcome; environmental, economic and social factors are comprehensively considered; the city low impact development scheme is objectively and quantitatively evaluatedin a qualitative and quantitative index combination mode; the city low impact development scheme with optimal environment-cost-benefit is screened out; and an effective technical management tool is provided for multi-objective management of sponge cities.

The invention belongs to the technical field of power network investment demand prediction, in particular to a power network investment demand prediction method, comprising the following steps of: constructing an influence factor system of power network investment prediction through a Delphi method; calculating the grey relational degree of each influence factor and the power network investment, sorting and screening out the main influence factors of the power network investment forecast as the input of the forecast model; the parameters of support vector machine are optimized by differentialevolution improved grey wolf optimization algorithm, and the investment demand of power network is forecasted after the forecasting model is established. The empirical analysis proves that the improved gray-wolf algorithm based on differential evolution has strong generalization ability and robustness to support vector machine optimization model in power network investment forecasting, and can achieve good forecasting effect, which provides a new idea for the research of power network investment forecasting.

The invention discloses a grid distribution network planning evaluation method, which comprises the following steps: (S1) building an index system for a grid distribution network planning evaluation, wherein the index system is combination of a series of indexes selected for evaluating one parameter or a system operation state of distribution network planning; (S2) combining an analytic hierarchy process and a delphi method, and determining index weights of various indexes for the grid distribution network planning evaluation, wherein the index weights reflect the influence degrees of the indexes on the distribution network planning; (S3) determining index values and subordinate functions of the indexes for the grid distribution network planning evaluation and calculating evaluation scores of the indexes, wherein the subordinate functions are function relationships between the index values and evaluation criteria of the index values; and (S4) carrying out reverse deriving to obtain the evaluation score of the grid distribution network planning by the analytic hierarchy process according to the evaluation scores of the indexes. According to the grid distribution network planning evaluation method, safe and economic operation of the distribution network after grid planning can be ensured; and the practical situation of the grid distribution network planning can be comprehensively and accurately reflected.

The invention discloses an electric power information system health degree assessment method and an assessment system thereof, and the method comprises the following steps: 1, selecting an electric power information system health degree assessment index, each assessment index comprising a plurality of monitoring data, and normalizing the assessment indexes; 2, according to the health degree assessment index, constructing a power information system health degree assessment model with a hierarchical structure, the health degree assessment model comprising a plurality of health models, and each health model requiring a plurality of health degree assessment indexes; 3, scoring the health degree assessment model layer by layer from bottom to top by combining a Delphi method and an analytic hierarchy process, and constructing a judgment comparison matrix; and 4, according to the actual monitoring data, calculating a health degree assessment value from bottom to top to obtain the health degree of the whole information system.

The invention discloses a method for comprehensively evaluating key parameter errors of complicated mechanical systems. The method includes rejecting useless parameters by means of analyzing evaluation influence factors, and then constructing systems for evaluating the key parameter hierarchical structure errors of the complicated mechanical systems on the basis of the idea of AHP (analytic hierarchy processes); converting sorting computation on evaluation indexes into pairwise comparison on the evaluation indexes by the aid of characteristic vector processes on the basis of improved Delphi processes, measuring the importance of the various evaluation indexes by the aid of scales, computing pairwise ratios and constructing judgment matrixes; allocating weights of indexes for comprehensively evaluating key parameters and then comprehensively evaluating and analyzing the key parameters by the aid of power exponent comprehensive evaluation processes; acquiring influence of parameters of bottom layers on parameters of each upper layer according to power exponent evaluation models and ultimately acquiring influence of the key parameters on the precision of the complicated mechanical systems by parity of reasoning. Vectors corresponding to characteristic values of the judgment matrixes are relative weight number sorting relation vectors of the evaluation indexes. The method has the advantage that the influence degrees of input parameters on the precision of the complicated mechanical systems can be effectively analyzed by the aid of the method.

The invention discloses a mountain torrent disaster control capability evaluation method, which comprises the steps of 1, collecting data of a to-be-analyzed region as initial data, and determining evaluation indexes; 2, directly assigning values to the quantitative indexes; carrying out index quantification on the qualitative indexes by utilizing a Delphi method and then carrying out assignment;3, determining the weight of each evaluation index by using subjective weighting and an analytic hierarchy process and objective weighting and using an entropy weight method, and determining a comprehensive weight by combining the subjective weighting method and the objective weighting method; and step 4, establishing a mountain torrent disaster control capability evaluation model, and performinganalysis and evaluation according to a model calculation result. By establishing the evaluation system and comprehensively considering the risk of the mountain torrent disasters and the mountain torrent disaster resistance, the control capacity of the mountain torrent disasters is evaluated, the disaster management level of the government can be improved, the flood control capacity of hilly areascan be improved, and the effect of mountain torrent disaster control measures can be known more visually.

The invention belongs to the field of nuclear installation decommissioning and radioactive waste governance, and particularly relates to an evaluation method for high-level waste geological disposal storage yard address appropriateness on the basis of a Delphi method. The method comprises the following steps that: S1: determining the quantitative evaluation index of high-level waste geological disposal storage yard address appropriateness; S2: constructing an index quantification rule and standard; S3: using the Delphi method to determine the weight of the index; and S4: calculating the final value of the high-level waste geological disposal storage yard address appropriateness. By use of the method, the establishment of the evaluation index is taken as a basis, the Delphi method is taken as a means to determine the weight of the index, the construction of the index quantification rule and standard is taken as a core, the problem of the quantitative evaluation of high-level waste geological disposal storage yard address appropriateness is solved, and the method is suitable for the quantitative evaluation of storage yard address appropriateness of a large and complex high-level waste geological disposal storage yard with an ultralong evaluation period.

The invention relates to a method for realizing software project cost estimation based on a computer software system, wherein the method includes steps of (1), estimating the work property through a delphi method; (2), estimating the work load according to the estimation result of the work property; (3), estimating cost according to the estimation result of the work load. The invention further comprises a system for realizing software project cost estimation based on the computer software system, comprising a work property estimating module, which is used for estimating the work property; a work load estimating module, which is used for estimating the work load according to the estimation result of the work property; a cost estimating module, which is used for estimating cost according to the estimation result of the work load. By applying the method and the system in the invention, the estimation coefficient is comprehensive, the workload estimation result is exact; the data can be automatically transferred and the system can be automatically calculated; the estimated data is automatically managed, thus the method and system are time-saving and exact; the estimating work product is automatically generated to save time and source; therefore, the method and system have wide application scale.

The invention discloses a method for constructing a small and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluation index system based on the important contribution degree, which includes the following steps: analyzing and researching the main influencing factors of the small and medium-sized reservoir dam safety through data analysis, field investigation, expert consultation and other methods , cause and degree of influence, using the Delphi method to conduct expert questionnaire surveys, calculating the importance of indicators, and initially selecting evaluation indicators; using the gray correlation analysis method to quantitatively calculate the contribution rate of the evaluation indicators to the evaluation results; assigning the importance and contribution rate combination In order to evaluate the important contribution of indicators; determine the index screening criteria and threshold; according to the screening criteria, retain the top k indicators with a large cumulative important contribution, and eliminate the smallest important contribution indicators, and construct a small and medium-sized reservoir dam safety evaluation index system. It avoids the subjectivity of artificial index selection and the rigidity of data analysis, making the dam safety evaluation index system more scientific, refined, and pertinent.

The invention relates to a method for evaluating comprehensive benefits of an AC / DC hybrid urban distribution network. The method comprises the following steps: collecting and checking basic data; building a hierarchical structure; calculating and scoring a single index; constructing a judgment matrix and determining the weight; determining the improved weight; and determining the comprehensive grade of the power network. The method can evaluate comprehensive indexes of a current AC / DC distribution network on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a delphi method (Delphi), so that the current AC / DC distribution network can be relatively scientifically and effectively analyzed; and construction and transformation of the AC / DC distribution network are guided.

The invention provides an urban agglomeration region land space utilization quality evaluation method and device. The method comprises steps that an excel work book format data file is acquired, and data of the data file is extracted; a fuzzy membership function model is employed to carry out dimensionless processing on original index data to generate standard index data corresponding to the original index data; an entropy weight method, a standard deviation method and a CRITIC method are employed to determine corresponding a weight value of an index respectively, and an average value of the weight values determined by the three methods is taken as a final index weight value; a measuring and calculation model corresponding to the index is utilized, and the index value corresponding to the index is calculated according to the standard index data and the final weight value. Through the method, a problem that an index weight value determined through an analytic hierarchy process or a delphi method can not objectively and scientifically reflect the influence degree of the index on the result is solved, and weight determination objectivity and scientific property are improved.

The invention discloses a quantitative type selection method of a TBM (tunnel boring machine, including a rock boring machine and a shield) which is applied construction of a mountain tunnel project, a city subway project, a diversion water supply project and the like by use of an efficacy coefficient method, for realizing the purposes of solving defects of conventional TBM type selection through subjective determination and realizing integrated decision-making and quantification of multiple indexes of TBM type selection. According to the method, six representative evaluation indexes including geological adaptability, wire mesh adaptability, construction progress, equipment cost, support cost and cavity stability are selected, a weight coefficient of each index is determined by use of a Delphi method, a TBM type selection efficacy coefficient method model is established, a total TBM type selection efficacy coefficient value is obtained, and the method is implemented according to such a flow indicated in chart one. The TBM type selection is carried out by use of the efficacy coefficient method, multi-index quantitative decision-making is realized, the method is simple and accurate, and the engineering application value is good.

The invention discloses a source network load storage coordination level evaluation method based on a risk thought. The source network load storage coordination level evaluation method is characterized in that a source-grid-load-storage coordination level evaluation model is provided under the background that the source-grid-load-storage coordination optimization mode becomes the development trendof the power system; the source-grid-load-storage coordination level evaluation model firstly analyzes internal and external uncertain factors affecting the coordination ability of the system based on the idea of risk identification, and then establishes an evaluation index system considering multi-agent interaction and layering; and secondly, the source-grid-load-storage coordination level evaluation model proposes a quantitative calculation method of quantitative indexes and a processing mode of qualitative indexes, establishes a source-network-load-storage coordination level evaluation model, and determines the weight of each level of indexes by using an analytic hierarchy process and a Delphi method in combination with an empowerment method. According to the constructed evaluation model, the source-grid-load-storage coordination level of the power system is scientifically and systematically evaluated for planning schemes of three areas of a certain province, and a decision reference is provided for planning and operation scheme optimization of the power department, and the intrinsic safety level of the system can be improved.