The invention discloses an evaluation method of acceptance capability of
new energy based on
sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The invention provides an acceptance capability analysis model, so that limiting factors of the acceptance capability of the
new energy, such as peak regulation,
frequency modulation and line
power flow restriction, can be analyzed, and a weak link of a
system can be recognized according to abandoned electric quantity of the
new energy, which is caused by the different limiting factors. According to the evaluation method, an evaluation framework for the acceptance capability of the new
energy based on the
sequential Monte Carlo simulation is established, the time-dependent factors in the
system, such as change of an
operation mode, load fluctuation, new energy fluctuation, water and
electricity output arrangement, component fault and unit maintenance, are considered, the evaluation indexes, such as the abandoned electric quantity of the new energy, the
electric energy production of the new energy and the acceptance capability value of the new energy, can be provided for a planner, the water and
electricity output is arranged according to a principle of fully utilizing the water and
electricity quantity, the peak regulation effect of water and electricity is fully exerted, and furthermore, in comparison with the previous evaluation method, the evaluation method is more complete.