Interconnection system reliability assessment method considering whole life cycle of equipment

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of electrical power system asset management, in particular to an interconnection system reliability assessment method considering a whole life cycle of equipment. The method comprises the steps that (S1) mathematic models are established, wherein a fault rate in each operating period can be modeled considering fault mode characteristics, repair and other factors of the equipment in different operating periods; and (S2) system simulation is performed, wherein during sequential Monte Carlo simulation of system reliability, when the characteristics of the fault rates in the whole life cycle of the equipment are considered, all the operating periods of the equipment need to be determined according to a difference value between a starting moment of a to-be-assessed time period and an equipment commissioning moment, and therefore a fault rate model in the whole life cycle is decided. Through the method, influences of changes of the fault rates in the whole life cycle of the equipment on system reliability assessment can be judged quantitatively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system asset management, in particular to a method for evaluating the reliability of an interconnected system considering the entire life cycle of equipment. Background technique [0002] At present, the methods used for reliability analysis can be divided into two categories: analytical methods and simulation methods. Although the analytical evaluation method has the advantage of short evaluation time, once the scale of the system expands and the complex and changeable operating conditions are encountered, its modeling often encounters relatively great difficulties. In contrast, the simulation evaluation method can start from the individual components that make up the system, and deal with more complex component state characteristics and mutual influence, so it can more conveniently simulate the random behavior of the entire complex system. [0003] Among the simulation methods, the sequential Monte Carlo m...

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Problems solved by technology

It can be seen that the failure rate of components in different operating periods will have varying degrees of impact on system reliability, which in turn will affect the final planning decision of the system

[0004] At present, the traditional interconnection system reliability evaluation method generally takes the known parameters of the annual average failure / repair rate. Although this consideration simplifies the analysis process, it also ignores factors such as operating conditions, environmental conditions, and self-aging of the components. The law of constant change in the whole life operation cycle, the resulting deviation of system reliability estimation cannot be ignored

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