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Risk rapid assessment method for large power grid

A large power grid and risk technology, applied in the field of rapid risk assessment of large power grids based on the improved cross-entropy algorithm, can solve problems such as acceleration effect, limited, continuous variable parameter optimization, etc., and achieve the effect of wide application range, high efficiency and precision

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-15
苏州电力设计研究院有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] To sum up, although the existing cross-entropy algorithm can effectively improve the efficiency of solving the risk assessment of large power grids, it is currently difficult to optimize the parameters of continuous variables with unknown correlation types or probability distribution types, so the acceleration effect is limited

Method used

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  • Risk rapid assessment method for large power grid
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Embodiment 1

[0016] Embodiment 1: A rapid risk assessment method for a large power grid, which is: using the improved cross-entropy algorithm to perform important sampling on the discrete component state variables and related continuous variables of the large power grid to obtain system state samples, based on the system state samples and using non- The risk level parameters of the large power grid are obtained through sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

[0017] 1. Important sampling of discrete component state variables and important sampling of relevant continuous variables

[0018] The important sampling method of the state variables of the discrete components is the same as the traditional cross-entropy algorithm, and the samples of the state variables of the discrete components are obtained. The important quantity sampling method of the correlation continuous variable is based on the improved cross-entropy method based on the Gaussian mixture model and EM algorithm to obtain the sampl...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a rapid risk assessment method for a large power grid, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the important sampling of a row discrete element state variable and a correlation continuous variable of the large power grid through employing an improved cross entropy algorithm, obtaining a system state sample, and obtaining a risk level parameter of the large power grid through non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation based on the system state sample; improving an important sampling method of discrete element state variables in a cross entropy algorithm and a traditional cross entropy algorithm, wherein an important sampling method of correlation continuous variables comprises the steps: a Gaussian mixture model is adopted to carry out density evaluation on joint probability distribution of the correlation continuous variables; taking the Gaussian mixture model as an important sampling function of the correlation continuous variable, iteratively updating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model, and obtaining an approximately optimal important sampling function of the correlation continuous variable; and performing important sampling on the correlation continuous variable to obtain a sample of the correlation continuous variable. The method has the advantages of being convenient, flexible, high in efficiency and precision, wide in application range and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system risk assessment, and in particular relates to a method for quickly assessing the risk of a large power grid based on an improved cross-entropy algorithm. Background technique [0002] Large power grid (generation and transmission system) risk assessment can identify the risk level of the power generation and transmission system in an uncertain operating environment, which has important reference significance for the planning and operation of large power grids. However, due to the large number of components in the large power grid and the extremely complex considerations, the risk assessment of the large power grid has a high degree of computational complexity, which seriously hinders its engineering application. [0003] Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS for short) can take into account the complex operation strategy of the system, and its calculation speed is less affected by the system scale. It ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06
Inventor 耿莲姚浩威崔鲁庄汝学黄欣周仰东王勇王慧赵凌骏谢维国夏梦谭文韬
Owner 苏州电力设计研究院有限公司
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