49 results about "Climate model" patented technology

Embodiments generally relate to methods of accurately predicting seasonal fluctuations in precipitation or other approximate functionals of a climate state space, such as the number of heating or cooling degree days in a season, maximum river flow rates, water table levels and the like. In one embodiment, a method for predicting climate comprises: deriving a climate attractor from a global climate model, wherein a tuning parameter for the climate attractor comprises a value of total energy for moving air and water on the earth's surface; estimating a predictive function for each of a plurality of computational cells within the global climate model; and predicting an approximate climate functional of interest for a given specific location utilizing a combination of the predictive functions from each of the plurality of computational cells geographically proximate the location, where at all stages, predictive functions are selected in part by comparison to historical data.

A system and method for providing multivariate climate change forecasting are provided that obtain, from one or more climate model datasets, simulated historical and future climate model data, and from one or more climate observational datasets, historical observed climate data. A statistical distribution, using a Bayesian model, is provided of extremes or climate indices for one or more variable climate features using the simulated climate model data and the observed climate data. One or more metrics are determined, including a prediction of a future climate variable for a determined future time period, a confidence bound of the prediction of the future climate variable for the determined future time period, and a prediction bound for the future climate variable for the determined future time period. The metrics can be transmitted to a variety of applications in a variety of formats.

The present invention discloses a climate change prediction method and system for fitting various climate modes based on a modified BP neural network. The method comprises the following steps: collecting rainfall data that characterizes a climate change feature; performing downscaling processing on climate mode prediction grid data, so as to obtain a long series of data with the same resolution as measured data; performing average correction on a downscaled climate mode prediction series; establishing a modified BP neural network model and determining a network model structure; training and inspecting the established BP neural network model; and predicting a future climate spatial-temporal change using a model output. According to the method and system disclosed by the present invention, output / input data processing of the BP neural network is modified, and various climate modes are fit to predict the future climate change, so that reliability of the prediction result is increased, and the defects that the deviation of a single mode is relatively large during an assessment and that basin space nonuniformity is not considered during a multi-mode collection assessment and the like are made up.

The invention discloses an evaluation method for evaluating landslide disaster loss induced by climate change and falling water, and belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and control. This method uses the physical process model, considers the spatial heterogeneity of the surface characteristics of each grid point in the region, and obtains the precipitation threshold corresponding to each spatial grid point in the region with spatial heterogeneity; combined with historical and climate model data, the optimal The climate model was established, and then the landslide-prone area and the possible rush-out and impact area were simulated by the model. The impact range simulated by this method can better match the disaster loss grid data, which solves the problem of climate in landslide disaster assessment. Change scenarios and landslide impacts are difficult to assess.

The invention discloses a staged design flood calculation method under the integrated climate model. By establishing the coupling model of GCM and VIC, the runoff process of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is predicted, and the average value under the climate change scenario is obtained through the arithmetic mean method. The runoff process is analyzed by the probability change point method, and the main flood season and the non-main flood season are divided into main and non-main flood seasons. The calculation model of the most probable combination method for reservoir design flood peak volume is constructed through the Copula function, and the predicted runoff data of the reservoir under the future climate change scenario is used as Design the input of the flood peak combination method to calculate the model, and consider the combination of multi-variables with the same frequency and the most likely combination at the same time, and calculate the joint design value of the reservoir at different return period levels. The invention has a strong statistical basis and provides a new approach for the staged design flood calculation under the climate change scenario.

The present invention relates to a radiative transfer calculation method suitable for continuous changes in cloud microphysical properties. Based on a second-flow approximation scheme, the method includes the following steps: Step 1) Expressing the radiant flux with continuous changes in cloud microphysical properties as a constant term and a disturbance term and; step 2) calculate the first radiant flux according to the traditional second-flow radiative transfer equation, and set the first radiant flux as the constant item; step 3) use the perturbation method to combine the asymmetry factor g and the unit Substituting the parameterized form of the scattering albedo ω into the traditional two-flow radiation transfer intensity equation to form a non-uniformity-induced disturbance term equation group, and by solving the non-uniformity-induced disturbance term equation group, two micro-disturbance factors and the expression The second radiant flux; step 4) summing the first radiant flux and the second radiant flux to complete the solution of the radiant flux with continuously changing microphysical properties of the cloud. This method effectively solves the vertical inhomogeneity of optical properties inside clouds in climate models, thereby improving the accuracy of radiation calculations.