The invention provides a method for evaluating operational risk of
wind power farms in combination with weather and
wind speed, comprising the following steps of: a, determining
outage probability of equipment components under the current weather within an evaluation cycle; b, constructing a
time sequence through an ARMA model and performing matrix transformation, thereby obtaining a
wind speed sequence of each
wind power farm; c, obtaining a
system state according to the
outage probability of the current weather, and performing sampling through a non-sequential Monte Carlo method; d, adding 1 to number of sampling, obtaining
wind speed of each
wind power farm at the
current time, and calculating output of each wind power farm; e, according to output of each wind power farm, screening out a
load bus meeting a preset condition, and corresponding
load shedding value of the
load bus, accumulating the
load shedding value, and taking the accumulated value as minimum loss load quantity of the
system; f, according to the minimum loss load quantity, calculating a
risk indicator; g, when
risk indicator variance is less than precision each time, returning back to the step d; and otherwise, outputting the
risk indicator. By implementation of the method and the
system provided by the invention, accuracy and reliability of evaluation of operational risk of the wind power farms can be improved, and
evaluation result can be more scientific and rational, and has
extensibility.