The invention discloses an expressway
traffic flow forecasting method based on
time series. The expressway
traffic flow forecasting method includes the steps of selecting one time scale, and carrying out statistics to build the
traffic flow time series Q=(x); setting the value range of the number p of autoregression items and the number q of
moving average items according to the selected time scale; solving the number p of the autoregression items and the number q of the
moving average items; fitting the optimal number p of the autoregression items and the optimal number q of the
moving average items through the maximum likelihood
estimation in cooperation with the traffic
flow time series Q to obtain an optimal ARMA model, and obtaining weight parameters of historical measured values and weight parameters of historical error values; solving the traffic flow forecasting series (please see the specifications) under the different time scales. By means of the expressway traffic flow forecasting method, an obtained
time series model can better meet the requirement for forecasting various kinds of flow of an expressway, and the forecasting universality is improved; operation is simple, the forecasting efficiency is improved, the forecasting speed is increased, and the
engineering requirement of traffic forecasting of the expressway is met.