The invention discloses a saturated power demand prediction method considering urbanization development and an electric energy substitution effect. The method comprises the following steps: data selection and preprocessing, an urbanization development process, electric energy substitution, re-electrification influence analysis, a saturated electric power demand measurement economics equation, a causal relationship graph, a stack flow graph, a saturated electric power demand scene generation model considering emerging electric power demand influence factors, economics multi-scene setting, electric power demand saturation criteria and a saturated electric power demand prediction model. According to the invention, factors influencing the change of the power demand are provided; interpretationof an urbanization development process, an energy substitution effect and a reelectrification theory and policy is completed and parameterization is realized; the vacancy value is fitted by means oftwo growth models, namely a logistic model and a Gabor model, and the model with the best fitting effect is used for filling vacancy data.