Saturated power demand prediction method considering urbanization development and electric energy substitution effect

Abstract

The invention discloses a saturated power demand prediction method considering urbanization development and an electric energy substitution effect. The method comprises the following steps: data selection and preprocessing, an urbanization development process, electric energy substitution, re-electrification influence analysis, a saturated electric power demand measurement economics equation, a causal relationship graph, a stack flow graph, a saturated electric power demand scene generation model considering emerging electric power demand influence factors, economics multi-scene setting, electric power demand saturation criteria and a saturated electric power demand prediction model. According to the invention, factors influencing the change of the power demand are provided; interpretationof an urbanization development process, an energy substitution effect and a reelectrification theory and policy is completed and parameterization is realized; the vacancy value is fitted by means oftwo growth models, namely a logistic model and a Gabor model, and the model with the best fitting effect is used for filling vacancy data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power forecasting, in particular to a saturated power demand forecasting method considering urbanization development and electric energy substitution effect. Background technique [0002] The easy transmission and transformation of electric energy enables it to meet most of the energy demand in production and life and maintain high utilization efficiency. The proportion of primary energy used by electric energy has become a key factor for the success of energy conservation and emission reduction in a country or region , with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, China's electricity demand is on a steady upward trend. In order to be able to formulate efficient and safe future power grid development plans, accurate power demand forecasting is very important. Combined with foreign developed countries According to the development experience of the...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, research on saturated power demand forecasting focuses more on point forecasting, and combined with the current situation of large uncertainties in medium and long-term forecasting, the application of point forecasting in the long-term, especially saturated power demand forecasting, is more risky. In addition, the regression model The explanatory variables are limited to economic and social variables, which cannot fully reflect the role of emerging power demand influencing factors under the new situation. Therefore, the present invention proposes a saturated power demand forecasting method that considers urbanization development and power substitution effects to solve existing problems in the prior art. The problem

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