Overhead line system operation risk assessment method capable of revealing element sensitivity

Abstract

The invention discloses an overhead line system operation risk assessment method capable of revealing element sensitivity. The method mainly comprises the following steps: 1, preparing raw materials;the method comprises the following steps: A, checking historical data to obtain the frequency outage time of overhead line system tripping and the total investigation time B; calculating the fault rate and the repair rate C of the component c, calculating the probability of the occurrence of an operation state to obtain the probability D of the yth overhead line system fault state, calculating anoverhead line system operation risk value E, calculating a risk prediction value F, and dividing the overhead line system risk prediction value on the same line into four risk intervals; and G, calculating the sensitivity of the failure rate of the element of the high-risk power supply section under the high-risk meteorological condition to the risk prediction value of the contact network. The method can evaluate the operation risk of the contact network under different meteorological conditions, and can reveal the influence degree of different elements on the operation risk of the contact network. And more effective and comprehensive data support can be provided for design, manufacturing and maintenance of the overhead line system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of catenary risk assessment, in particular to a catenary operation risk assessment method capable of revealing component sensitivity. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's railway has experienced a period of rapid development, and the railway department has begun to gradually focus its work on the operation and maintenance of the railway system. As an important part of the railway traction power supply system, the catenary is the only transmission device for the power of the electric locomotive. Once a fault occurs, it is extremely easy to cause abnormal operation of the locomotive, and even cause the locomotive to stop running. Since the catenary has no backup and is completely outdoors, it is very susceptible to the influence of external environmental conditions (meteorological conditions), and the probability of catenary failure is high; according to statistics, the tripping accidents caused b...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] There are few existing catenary risk assessment methods. The Chinese patent application number 201910165009.0 proposes a dynamic risk analysis method for high-speed railway catenary based on Bayesian networks. This method establishes the risk propagation chain of high-speed railway catenary insulator flashover Model, using Bayesian network to obtain the probability of risk occurrence, and using the passenger flow density index to determine the dynamic severity of risk in two dimensions of time and space, but this method is only for the fault of catenary insulator flashover , risk assessment of the catenary; did not take into account the impact of insulators other than flashover on the operational risk, let alone the impact of other catenary components other than insulators on the catenary operational risk

But in fact, the catenary is composed of different components, and the failure rates of various components are different under different weather conditions, and the degree of influence on the risk of catenary line operation is also very different

Therefore, this method cannot provide effective and comprehensive data support for the reliability design, manufacture, and maintenance of the catenary, and it is difficult to effectively improve the reliability of the catenary, reduce its operation risk, and improve the operation stability of the entire railway system

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