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Sudden water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process

A Monte Carlo method and analytic hierarchy process technology, applied in the field of pollutant simulation, can solve problems such as complex numerical calculation time, cumbersome mathematical modeling, and restrictions on the development of deterministic water quality models, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-11-25
ZHEJIANG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the water environment is a complex system, cumbersome mathematical modeling, complex parameter calibration and a large amount of numerical calculation time limit the development of deterministic water quality models

Method used

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  • Sudden water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process
  • Sudden water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process
  • Sudden water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process

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Embodiment Construction

[0083] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0084] An early warning framework for sudden river pollution accidents and the corresponding emergency response model are as follows: figure 1 shown. The upstream injection point (LP) is the place where pollutants are injected into the river; the monitoring station is a real-time monitoring station for daily water quality management, usually with basic hydrological, water quality, and meteorological data; Sampling points arranged to observe the diffusion of pollutants can provide real-time pollutant concentration and other data; downstream early warning points are areas where we need to focus on changes in pollutant concentration. Usually, once they receive serious pollution, it will cause Severe social and economic impacts, such as water intakes in cities; sewage treatment plants are used to purify polluted water sources, and water will be supplied to cities only aft...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a sudden water pollution accident early warning method based on Monte Carlo and an analytic hierarchy process. The method comprises the following steps: S1, pollutant simulation based on a Monte Carlo method, i.e., based on an uncertainty analysis, an uncertainty water quality model is constructed, and according to water quality, hydrology and meteorological data, time and space change rules of diffusion of pollutants are obtained through simulation and calculation by use of the Monte Carlo method; S2, calculation of a pollution accident occurrence probability, i.e., through defining occurrence conditions of downstream pollution accidents, through combination with a pollutant diffusion result, a probability density function between a pollutant peak concentration and a pollutant standard-exceeding duration is obtained, and the occurrence probability of the downstream pollutant accidents is further obtained; S3, calculation of pollution accident influences, i.e., by referring to the diffusion state of the pollutants, through combination with the analytic hierarchy process, sudden pollution accidents are evaluated, and health, economic, social and water supply system influences possibly caused by the pollution accidents are obtained; and S4, based on risk degree determination of a risk matrix, risks of early warning points are obtained comprehensively by use of a risk matrix method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of pollutant simulation, and specifically proposes an early warning method for sudden water pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process. Background technique [0002] Water is the source of life and an essential part of the natural environment. Water resources are an important and indispensable natural resource for social development. However, with the rapid economic development and the increasing frequency of human activities, water pollution accidents occur frequently, which have seriously affected the safety of drinking water for residents, resulting in a series of economic and social problems. How to effectively ensure the safety of drinking water is the basis for ensuring the stable development of the country and the basic requirement for protecting the fundamental interests of the people. [0003] Among all kinds of water pollution accidents, sudden river pollution accidents are a k...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02A20/152
Inventor 侯迪波刘景明黄平捷张光新葛晓凡刘勋王柯王可心
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV
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