A catenary operation risk assessment method that reveals component sensitivity

Abstract

A catenary operation risk assessment method that can reveal the sensitivity of components. The main steps are: A. Check historical data to obtain the number of catenary trips, power outage time and total investigation time B. Calculate the failure rate and repair rate of component c. , Calculate the probability of the occurrence of the operating state to obtain the probability D of the yth catenary failure state, calculate the catenary operating risk value E, calculate the risk prediction value F, and divide the catenary risk prediction value on the same line into four risk intervals; G. Calculate the sensitivity of the failure rate of components to the risk prediction value of the catenary in the high-risk power supply section under high-risk meteorological conditions. This method can evaluate the operating risk of the catenary under different meteorological conditions, and can reveal the risk of different components to the catenary operation. It can provide more effective and comprehensive data support for the design, manufacture and maintenance of the catenary.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of catenary risk assessment, in particular to a catenary operation risk assessment method capable of revealing component sensitivity. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's railway has experienced a period of rapid development, and the railway department has begun to gradually focus its work on the operation and maintenance of the railway system. As an important part of the railway traction power supply system, the catenary is the only transmission device for the power of the electric locomotive. Once a fault occurs, it is extremely easy to cause abnormal operation of the locomotive, and even cause the locomotive to stop running. Since the catenary has no backup and is completely outdoors, it is very susceptible to the influence of external environmental conditions (meteorological conditions), and the probability of catenary failure is high; according to statistics, the tripping accidents caused b...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] There are few existing catenary risk assessment methods. The Chinese patent application number 201910165009.0 proposes a dynamic risk analysis method for high-speed railway catenary based on Bayesian networks. This method establishes the risk propagation chain of high-speed railway catenary insulator flashover Model, using Bayesian network to obtain the probability of risk occurrence, and using the passenger flow density index to determine the dynamic severity of risk in two dimensions of time and space, but this method is only for the fault of catenary insulator flashover , risk assessment of the catenary; did not take into account the impact of insulators other than flashover on the operational risk, let alone the impact of other catenary components other than insulators on the catenary operational risk

But in fact, the catenary is composed of different components, and the failure rates of various components are different under different weather conditions, and the degree of influence on the risk of catenary line operation is also very different

Therefore, this method cannot provide effective and comprehensive data support for the reliability design, manufacture, and maintenance of the catenary, and it is difficult to effectively improve the reliability of the catenary, reduce its operation risk, and improve the operation stability of the entire railway system

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