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Medium and long term load prediction method

A load forecasting, medium and long-term technology, applied in forecasting, instruments, biological neural network models, etc., can solve problems such as the need to improve forecasting accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2022-01-11
YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] This application provides a medium and long-term load forecasting method to solve the problem that the forecasting accuracy of existing load forecasting methods needs to be improved

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  • Medium and long term load prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] In order to improve the accuracy of medium and long-term load forecasting, the present application provides a medium- and long-term load forecasting method. figure 1 It is the flow chart of the medium and long-term load forecasting method flow chart of this application, combined with figure 1 As shown, the present application provides a medium and long-term load forecasting method specifically including the following steps.

[0047] Step S100, using co-integration test to determine the economic factors that have a long-term equilibrium relationship with the electric load.

[0048] In this application, economic factors (x 1 、x 2 ... x n ) includes several economic parameters, including GDP, total fixed investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods, consumer price index, growth rate of industrial added value, labor force and population. Of course, those skilled in the art can adjust the parameters specifically included in economic factors according to actual...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long term load prediction method, and the method comprises the steps: finding out an economic factor which has a long term equilibrium relation with electric quantity through a co-integration test in measurement economics based on a Granger causality test and an LSTM; determining economic factors beneficial to electric quantity prediction by using a Granger causality test method so as to reduce the number of input variables of the prediction model; and finally, inputting the economic factor data into the LSTM model for load prediction. A method of combining the Granger causal relationship test and the LSTM time sequence prediction model is introduced into a multivariable system, the medium-and-long-term load prediction model which is not easy to overfit and high in expandability is constructed, and the model is used for medium-and-long-term load prediction. And the predicted medium-and-long-term load has relatively high accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power intelligent forecasting, in particular to a method for medium and long-term load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Medium- and long-term power load forecasting is to fully consider the system characteristics, natural and social conditions, and use reliable methods and means to determine the load value at a specific time in the future under the condition of meeting a certain accuracy according to the historical load value. At present, medium and long-term load forecasting methods include regression analysis based on mathematical statistics, time series analysis, gray forecasting, etc. In addition, there are some intelligent forecasting methods such as artificial neural network, support vector machine, combined forecasting, etc. [0003] Because the accuracy of medium and long-term load forecasting is affected by various random factors such as politics, economy, population,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/04
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/048G06N3/044
Inventor 崔婧杨浚文胡凯赵岳恒杨政尹春林文俊杰杨莉潘侃李杰朱华苏蒙赵娜
Owner YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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