Long-term rainfall prediction model construction method, long-term rainfall prediction method and long-term rainfall prediction device

Abstract

The invention discloses a long-term rainfall prediction model construction method, a long-term rainfall prediction method and a long-term rainfall prediction device. The construction method comprises the following steps: acquiring a sample set; screening explanatory variables in the sample set based on an error discovery rate control method of multi-hypothesis testing and a random forest model to obtain predictive factors influencing precipitation in corresponding months of the next year; and carrying out random forest modeling according to the prediction factors influencing the precipitation in the corresponding month of the next year and the precipitation in the corresponding month of the next year, and training to obtain a long-term precipitation prediction model of the precipitation in the corresponding month. According to the long-term rainfall prediction model construction method, the long-term rainfall prediction method and the long-term rainfall prediction device provided by the invention, variable screening can be optimized from an experience-dependent method to a data-dependent method, the problem of false positive error rate of a random forest method during empirical variable screening is improved, and the accuracy and reliability of model prediction can be effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of long-term hydrology, in particular to a method for constructing a long-term precipitation prediction model, a long-term precipitation prediction method and a device. Background technique [0002] Long-term precipitation quantitative forecasting methods can be divided into three categories: dynamic numerical methods, mathematical statistics methods and artificial intelligence methods. The dynamical numerical method uses land-sea thermodynamic models to simulate future weather conditions for precipitation prediction. Its physical mechanism is clear, but the model calculation is complex, and precipitation predictions in local areas still have large deviations. Mathematical statistics method is to estimate the future precipitation by constructing the statistical relationship between climate factors and precipitation, or analyzing the characteristics of precipitation series (such as trend and cycle) from a sta...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of this, the embodiment of the present invention provides a long-term precipitation prediction model construction method, long-term precipitation prediction method and device, to solve the technical problem of low accuracy in the prior art when random forest is used for precipitation prediction

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