Method and system for evaluating drought social economic exposure degree under climate change scene

Abstract

The invention discloses a drought social economic exposure degree evaluation method and system under a climate change scene, and belongs to the field of water conservancy projects. Firstly, a plurality of global climate mode output data are extracted; then, obtaining a multi-mode meteorological series under a climate change scene by adopting a deviation correction method; calculating an evapotranspiration series of each grid based on a Penman formula, deducing a standardized rainfall evapotranspiration index, and extracting a corresponding drought characteristic value through a run-length theory; constructing a joint distribution function of drought duration and intensity of each grid in different periods based on a Copula function, and deducing duration and intensity corresponding to a given return period based on a most probable combination method; and finally, considering the dynamic population sharing the social economic path and the GDP scene, and evaluating the social economic exposure degree of drought risk increase under the influence of climate change. The method has important scientific significance for future two-dimensional drought disaster prediction and loss evaluation, and can provide important reference basis for scientifically evaluating the social economic exposure degree of multi-dimensional climate disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering, and more particularly relates to a method and system for assessing socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate change scenarios. Background technique [0002] Global climate change has changed the energy budget and water cycle process of the land-atmosphere system, and frequent extreme hydrological disasters such as drought have brought huge challenges to the sustainable development of the socio-economic system and the ecological environment. my country is one of the areas most affected by drought disasters. The rate of climate warming is much higher than the global average. By the end of this century, the temperature may rise by 4°C, which seriously threatens my country's food security, agricultural security and ecological environment security. An in-depth understanding of the socioeconomic impact of drought disasters under climate change scenarios is of great significa...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the defects of related technologies, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a drought socioeconomic exposure assessment method and system under climate change scenarios, aiming to solve the problem that the existing assessment methods do not conform to the objective laws of social operation and it is difficult to accurately describe drought events. The question of physical properties

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