Rainstorm high-risk zoning method based on hydrometeorological region linear moment frequency analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a rainstorm high-risk zoning method based on hydrometeorological region linear moment frequency analysis, and relates to the technical field of flood prevention and disaster reduction hydrometeorology. The specific scheme is that the method comprises the following steps: S1, carrying out data collection, screening and quality control; S2, analyzing the applicability and superiority of a regional linear moment method; S3, conducting hydrometeorological consistent area division; S4, carrying out linear selection of optimal distribution of a consistent area; S5, carrying out frequency estimation value calculation and space-time consistency adjustment; S6, drawing a rainstorm high-risk division map. The rainstorm high-risk zoning method based on hydrometeorological region linear moment frequency analysis provided by the invention not only can obtain a rainfall frequency estimation value with relatively high precision and accuracy, but also can reflect a spatial distribution relationship among the occurrence probability of a strong rainfall intensity-rainstorm falling area-probability of occurrence so as to analyze the rainstorm high-risk zoning, and can providea scientific basis for engineering flood control design, flood control planning design of regions and cities and early warning of mountain torrent disasters in a short duration.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrometeorology for flood control and disaster reduction, more specifically, it relates to a rainstorm high-risk zoning method and system based on linear moment frequency analysis of hydrometeorological areas. Background technique [0002] Heavy rain and the floods caused by it are one of the most important natural disasters in my country, which seriously threaten the sustainable development of my country's social economy and the safety of people's lives and properties. How to strengthen the early warning of flood disasters and how to scientifically carry out flood control planning and design are important issues in the current flood control and disaster reduction work. [0003] The design flood calculated according to the rainstorm data is one of the important basis of flood control design standards in my country, and its theoretical basis is the hydrological frequency calculation. The traditional freq...

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Problems solved by technology

Single-station analysis can only obtain single-station frequency estimates, and the spatial distribution of rainstorm design values ​​often only discusses the point-surface relationship, and cannot yet involve the spatial distribution of rainstorm intensity

[0004] According to the normative standards of our country, the overall line shape of most hydrological frequency curves in my country adopts the P-Ⅲ type distribution. Although the P-Ⅲ type curve estimated by the conventional moment method can fit most of the hydrological data series, but in some areas Application is not ideal

The parameters estimated by the conventional method of moments are too small, so the frequency estimates obtained are too small and cannot solve the unbiasedness of the parameter estimation process and the robustness requirements for extremely large values; although the visual estimation line fitting method can be used to a certain extent Regional hydrological information, but its experience, subjectivity, and arbitrariness are relatively large, and the results of line fitting vary from person to person; especially when the sample series contains extremely large values, it seems powerless

Therefore, the current frequency estimates used as flood control standards in my country are generally less accurate. Today, extreme hydrometeorological events occur frequently, and they cannot meet the requirements of engineering design and regional flood control planning for flood control design standards.

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