Stable section load rate prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method and device for a stable section load rate, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of a power grid. The prediction method comprises the steps: obtaining section information, and extracting a feature parameter in the section information; analyzing according to the characteristic parameters and the section load rate, and determining influence factors influencing the section load rate in the characteristic parameters; training an autoregressive differential moving average model according to the influence factors; andpredicting the section load rate according to the trained autoregressive differential moving average model. According to the method, correlation analysis is carried out on each device influencing thesection load rate by adopting a correlation analysis algorithm, so that the rationalization degree of analysis and the accuracy of an analysis result are improved; section load rate prediction is performed through an autoregressive differential moving average model, and evolution characteristics and rules of the section load rate along with the time process are obtained by processing time sequence data of the section load rate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method, device, electronic device and storage medium for predicting a stable section load rate. Background technique [0002] The safety and stability of power system refers to the ability of the power system to maintain stable operation after being disturbed by an accident. The rearrangement of power system controllable variables to eliminate potential or existing limit violations and maintain or restore the grid to a safe state. The stable section of the power grid refers to the tie line family formed by connecting multiple branches between two regions, and its load condition is calculated by each branch that constitutes the section. [0003] With the continuous development of social economy and science and technology, the scale of the power grid has gradually expanded, and the power system has evolved from the traditional independent and closed "generating and use" stru...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, only real-time calculations are performed on the stable section of the power grid, and there is a lack of analysis of its long-term operation and prediction of future operation. If a weak link in the system fails, it will affect the stability of the system or local power grid

[0004] The research on the blackout accidents in the past shows that most of the accidents occurred because of the failure of a certain branch in the section, the protection action cut off the branch, and the power flow was transferred to other branches in the section to continue transmission. Once the transmission limit of the remaining branches is exceeded, it will lead to chain overload tripping of other branches in the section. If corresponding measures are not taken in time, it may further cause the system to be disconnected, resulting in the loss of power transmission capacity of the entire transmission section. cause widespread system outage

Images