Dam seepage behavior analysis method considering various uncertainties

A technology of uncertainty and analysis method, applied in the field of dam seepage behavior analysis considering various uncertainties, it can solve the problems of quantitative proxy model uncertainty and other problems, and achieve the effect of strong generalization

Pending Publication Date: 2020-11-17
TIANJIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, surrogate models will inevitably bring additional uncertainties to parameter inversion, and there are few studies to quantify the uncertainty of surrogate models in parameter inversion studies

Method used

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  • Dam seepage behavior analysis method considering various uncertainties
  • Dam seepage behavior analysis method considering various uncertainties
  • Dam seepage behavior analysis method considering various uncertainties

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Embodiment 1

[0088] as attached figure 2 As shown, because in the embodiment of the present invention, the validity and superiority of the method proposed by the present invention are proved by the inversion of the permeability coefficient of the earth-rock dam foundation. The permeability coefficients of the earth-rock dam body and cut-off wall are respectively set to 1×10 -5 m / s and 1×10 - 6 m / s. The dam foundation includes three strata, stratum A, stratum B, and stratum C, and each stratum is set as an isotropic uniform porous medium. The permeability coefficient of each formation is set as the parameter to be inverted, and its value range is set as K A ∈[0,2]×10 -3 m / s, K B ∈[0.2,1.8]×10 -4 m / s,K C ∈[0.5,1.5]×10 -5 m / s, and its prior distribution is set to uniform distribution. Let the "true values" of the permeability coefficients of formation A, formation B and formation C be 1×10 -3 m / s, 1×10 -4 m / s, 1×10 -5 m / s, upstream water level H 1 =15m, downstream water level H...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a dam seepage behavior analysis method considering various uncertainties. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, constructing a sample pair by utilizing a Latin hypercube sampling method and a dam seepage numerical simulation model; step 2, establishing an agent model by utilizing the sample pairs constructed in the step 1; and step 3, quantifying various uncertainties in the inversion process by adopting a random method, calculating seepage parameters to be inverted based on a Bayesian rule, and correcting the dam seepage numerical simulation model by usingthe seepage parameters to be inverted obtained by calculation, thereby accurately analyzing the dam seepage behavior. Various uncertainties are comprehensively considered in a seepage parameter randominversion method, so that dam seepage parameters are accurately and reliably inverted, and seepage performance is reasonably analyzed and evaluated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a dam seepage behavior analysis technology in water conservancy and hydropower projects, in particular to a dam seepage behavior analysis method considering multiple uncertainties. Background technique [0002] Seepage parameters (such as the permeability coefficient of dam body and dam foundation) are the key parameters that affect the accuracy of the dam seepage numerical simulation model. However, there is a large deviation between the seepage parameters obtained through laboratory tests or field in-situ tests and the actual situation. The parameter inversion analysis method based on field observation data can obtain more accurate seepage parameters and provide a data basis for correcting the numerical simulation model of dam seepage, so it plays an important role in the analysis of dam seepage behavior. [0003] There are many commonly used parameter inversion methods, including the least squares method [1] , Gauss-Newton...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F30/13
CPCG06F30/20G06F30/13Y02A10/40
Inventor 王晓玲余红玲佟大威关涛王佳俊
Owner TIANJIN UNIV
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