Large-scale new energy grid-connected medium-and-long-term power market operation risk evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long term power market operation risk evaluation method considering large-scale new energy grid connection. The method comprises the steps: firstly building a medium and long term power market operation risk evaluation index system considering the large-scale new energy grid connection, and the index system comprises an electricity price fluctuation risk, a power supply shortage risk, a credit risk, and a system safety risk; then, experts determine an index sequence relationship and score; then weight screening and integration are carried out; determining an evaluation level domain; then establishing a fuzzy relation matrix and performing fuzzy synthesis; and finally, determining the medium-and-long-term power market operation risk level considering large-scale new energy grid connection. According to the method, the medium-and-long-term power market operation risk level considering large-scale new energy grid connection can be scientifically and effectively evaluated, main risk sources are identified, corresponding risk suppression measures are taken to reduce market risks, and the safety and reliability of medium-and-long-term power market operation are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power market risk assessment, and in particular relates to a medium- and long-term power market operation risk assessment method that takes into account large-scale new energy grid integration. Background technique [0002] In response to environmental pollution and energy shortages, governments around the world have formulated incentive policies to promote the development of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics. With the advancement of new energy power generation technology and the reduction of investment costs, the possibility of its entry into the power market is gradually increasing. The penetration rate of new energy in the power system is gradually increasing, which not only brings varying degrees of impact on other power market participants such as traditional power generation companies, power sales companies, grid companies and large users, but also affects the operation of the ...

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Problems solved by technology

Since the reform of the power system in 2015, my country has gradually adopted various measures to promote the reform of the power system, such as gradually establishing a competition mechanism for the reform of the power sales side, and launching a spot transaction pilot program, etc., but it has not considered large-scale new energy and However, there is a lack of research on the risk assessment of power market operations.

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