Method for obtaining reservoir group multi-objective scheduling risk analysis optimal equilibrium solution

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for obtaining a reservoir group multi-objective scheduling risk analysis optimal equilibrium solution. The method comprises the acquisition of a multi-objective scheduling risk analysis noninferior solution, the calculation of a uniformity rate decision method of multi-objective scheduling risk analysis, and the calculation of a risk and benefit conversion relation and a threshold determination process in multi-objective scheduling. In the acquisition of the multi-objective scheduling risk analysis noninferior solution, firstly a cascade reservoir combined dispatching multi-objective minimum risk model is established, then a scheme is obtained through a selection operation in a genetic algorithm to carry out non-dominated sorting, and through the continuous renewal and elimination of crossover and variation operations in the algorithm, finally a solution curve or curve surface formed by a solution set is outputted. In the calculation process of the uniformity rate decision method of the multi-objective scheduling risk analysis, and based on a uniformity rate, a decision mode of the optimal equilibrium solution is determined. In the process of the calculation of a risk and benefit mutual conversion relation and a threshold determination process in multi-objective scheduling, based on the bifurcation theory, the threshold of a risk and benefit conversion relation between objectives is analyzed and determined.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of optimized operation of hydropower energy, and in particular relates to a method for obtaining an optimal equilibrium solution for multi-objective scheduling risk analysis of reservoir groups. Background technique [0002] Cascade reservoirs usually have comprehensive utilization functions, and may undertake tasks such as flood control, power generation, water supply, shipping, and ecology. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors such as hydrology, hydraulic power, engineering structure, and man-made factors, the comprehensive utilization benefits of cascade reservoirs are affected to varying degrees or there are certain potential risks. With the active and orderly advancement of my country's hydropower development, risk analysis of multi-objective dispatching of cascade reservoirs will become an inevitable development trend of integrated river basin management. [0003] The multi-objective operati...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] (1) Most experts and scholars only evaluate and choose among several schemes for the selection of schemes. For reservoir operation, the water level and runoff are also continuous, so it is a multi-dimensional nonlinear continuous mathematical solution. The problem is that different scheduling processes have different risks, and the program set should also be a continuous curve or surface, rather than simply several groups of risk evaluation programs, which will be contrary to the actual situation.

[0005] (2) Commonly used evaluation and decision-making methods mainly include analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method, fuzzy matter-element evaluation method, etc., but most of the existing evaluation and decision-making methods only carry out preliminary research and practical discussion on multi-objective decision-making problems, mostly From the perspective of practical engineering application, the use of discrete methods to simplify the solution of multi-objective decision-making problems lacks strict theoretical proofs. However, in practical problems, the solutions to multi-objective problems are mostly continuous, and it is difficult to solve them using existing methods. ; and the existing methods are not deep in the thinking and theoretical proof of the mutual transformation between the goals in the multi-objective decision-making problem, especially the threshold of the mutual transformation between the goals is rarely studied, so it is necessary to conduct more in-depth research on it

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