Comprehensive risk evaluating method of power grid

Abstract

The invention provides a comprehensive risk evaluating method of a power grid. The method includes: building a power grid risk evaluating index system, selecting a reasonable index value interval to perform risk grading, setting a corresponding risk quantization value interval, calculating the risk grade and risk quantization value of each operation risk index, calculating the operation risk grade and quantization value of the power grid, performing probability grading on accident occurrence probability, determining the quantization value of the accident occurrence probability, calculating the risk grade and risk quantization value of a grid structure risk index after each accident, calculating the risk grade and quantization value of a power grid structure, calculating the comprehensive risk quantization value of the power grid, and determining the comprehensive risk grade of the power grid. The comprehensive risk evaluating method has the advantages that the risks during the real-time operation of the power grid are considered, the potential risks brought by the defects of the power grid structure are also considered, risk grading is introduced to perform grading on the calculated comprehensive risks, and reference and basis are provided for the optimization of the power grid risks.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a comprehensive risk assessment method for distribution networks. Background technique [0002] The failure of the distribution network is an important factor affecting the quality of power and the reliability of power supply. Only when the safe and stable operation of the distribution network is ensured can the safe and reliable operation of the entire power grid be guaranteed. Therefore, it is very necessary to carry out more work in the field of distribution network security defense, and to conduct research on the risk assessment method of the distribution network. Through the risk assessment of the distribution network, the vulnerable points of the distribution network can be found in a timely and comprehensive manner. and weak areas, and then put forward defense and improvement measures to effectively restrain the occurrence and expansion of accidents. [0003] Althou...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] 1) Since the risk assessment results have multiplied the probability of accident occurrence and the severity of the accident, dispatchers cannot understand their specific composition based on the risk indicators, that is, the probability of accident occurrence and the severity of the accident cannot be known, which to a certain extent It affects the judgment of system dispatchers and may lead to wrong dispatch choices;

[0010] 2) Since the established distribution network model is analyzed through statistical load data, the result of risk assessment is often the calculation result within a period of time, which cannot reflect the risk level of the distribution network at a specific moment, and the load data used It is the load data in the past, and it is necessary to estimate the risk level in the future by means of load forecasting and other means;

[0011] 3) Risk assessment can only be carried out in the form of off-line analysis, which cannot reflect various risk situations in the distribution network in time, easily leads to larger-scale accidents, and cannot achieve timely accident warning

[0012] In recent years, some new ideas of distribution network risk assessment have emerged, mainly around real-time risks. The final risk is calculated by grading the risk consequences and risk occurrence probability, but this only considers the risk in the current state, and does not Potential risks due to deficiencies in the grid structure are not considered

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