Medium and long term hydrologic forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long term hydrologic forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition. The medium and long term hydrologic forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition comprises the steps that firstly, a hydrologic forecasting model is built according to the following procedures of (101) empirical mode decomposition, wherein empirical mode decomposition is carried out on a hydrologic time sequence s(t) of a forecast drainage basin, (102) kernel principle component analysis, wherein kernel principle component analysis is carried out on n intrinsic mode function components Fj obtained through empirical mode decomposition and a trend item rn, and p main components F'k are extracted, (103) building of a training sample set, wherein the training sample set is built according to the extracted p main components F'k, (104) building of a support vector machine model, and (105) training of the support vector machine model; secondly, annual runoff data of the years needing forecasting are forecast through the built hydrologic forecasting model. The medium and long term hydrologic forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition is simple in step, convenient to realize, easy and convenient to operate, good in use effect and capable of effectively resolving the problem of low forecasting accuracy of an existing hydrologic forecasting method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a hydrological forecasting method, in particular to a mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting method based on empirical mode decomposition. Background technique [0002] Studying the trend and direction of hydrological evolution in the basin, mastering the characteristics and laws of hydrological sequence changes, and scientifically and rationally carrying out hydrological forecasting, especially medium and long-term hydrological forecasting, and then guiding the management and development and utilization of water resources in the basin, and promoting social and economic development. very important. Since the hydrological evolution of the basin is disturbed by factors such as human activities and climate change, the long-term evolution of the hydrological process is characterized by obvious complexity and uncertainty. The law of hydrological evolution is the result of the comprehensive action of various influencing factors...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a medium- and long-term hydrological forecast method based on empirical mode decomposition, which has simple steps, convenient implementation, easy operation, good use effect, and can effectively solve the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art. The problem of low prediction accuracy of existing hydrological forecasting methods

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