A Productivity Prediction Method for Industrial Timber Forest Based on the Coupling of Species Distribution and Productivity

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the productivity of industrial timber forests based on the coupling of species distribution and productivity. The maximum entropy model is used to simulate the suitability of industrial timber forests, and the coupling relationship between the predicted environmental suitability and the productivity of industrial timber forests is established to obtain the environmental suitability Degree-productivity conversion equation. Then carry out the simulation of the suitable habitat area under a variety of climate change scenarios with different intensities in the future, and use the obtained global environmental suitability layer for further grid calculation through the conversion equation between productivity and environmental suitability. Finally, the suitable habitat area and production potential of industrial timber forests in the world are obtained. The species distribution model of the present invention combines the published ground survey biomass data to predict future forest productivity, not only realizes high-precision simulation on a global scale, but also can simulate future biomass distribution on a large scale in combination with the characteristics of future climate change. It is of great significance to the selection of industrial timber forest afforestation area and the maintenance or improvement of future productivity.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of forest productivity prediction, in particular to a method for predicting future industrial timber forest productivity based on the coupling of species distribution and productivity. Background technique [0002] The shortage of timber has always been a global problem, and the shortage of timber in my country is particularly serious. At present, my country is the world's largest timber importer and second largest timber consumer. In order to meet the production and living needs of the people, my country can only rely on increasing imports to maintain timber supply. In recent years, the proportion of my country's imported timber in domestic timber consumption has risen from 27.9% in 2000 to 50.7% in 2014. Even with increased timber imports, my country's annual timber gap still reaches 300 million cubic meters. In the context of such a shortage of timber, the production maintenance or improvement of indus...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although previous ground surveys, satellite remote sensing and other means can realize large-scale biomass simulation and measurement, it is difficult to predict future productivity in combination with future climate change models

Although ecosystem process models can simulate future forest productivity under climate change, such models need to rely on multiple physiological indicators such as plant photosynthetic rate and leaf porosity, so they often cannot achieve global large-scale simulations

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