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A method and system for predicting the trend of infectious diseases using a multi-baseline correction model

A technology for correcting models and trend predictions, applied in epidemic warning systems, medical data mining, complex mathematical operations, etc., to achieve the effect of reducing difficulty, accurate short-term prediction results, and lowering the threshold of data requirements

Active Publication Date: 2021-10-19
金电联行(北京)信息技术有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

The non-stationary sequence has no constant central trend, and the sample mean and variance of the time series cannot be used to infer the distribution characteristics of random variables at each time point. Using the time series model to predict the development of the epidemic has encountered problems

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  • A method and system for predicting the trend of infectious diseases using a multi-baseline correction model
  • A method and system for predicting the trend of infectious diseases using a multi-baseline correction model

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Embodiment Construction

[0015] In some embodiments of the infectious disease trend prediction method using the multi-baseline correction model of the present invention, the following steps are included:

[0016] Obtain infectious disease epidemic data, and obtain infectious disease epidemic data from infectious disease data sources;

[0017] Data preprocessing, filter data source fields, delete unnecessary fields, and retain useful fields;

[0018] To judge the development stage of the epidemic situation, the development stage of the epidemic situation is judged according to the number of new confirmed cases every day, and the judgment results of the development stage of the epidemic situation are respectively associated with the calibration method of the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the cumulative diagnosis prediction interval;

[0019] The autoregressive baseline predicts the interval value, using the autoregressive baseline to calculate the interval value of the cumulative number...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to an Internet-based data acquisition system, comprising the following steps: acquiring infectious disease epidemic data; data preprocessing; judging the development stage of the epidemic; autoregressive baseline prediction interval value; index baseline calibration upper limit; growth baseline calibration lower limit value; calculation and calibration, the primary baseline, the pessimistic auxiliary baseline, and the optimistic auxiliary baseline are mutually calibrated; prediction result output. The beneficial effect of the present invention is that, compared with the professional model analysis method of infectious diseases, the present invention has relatively low requirements for data, and only needs historical basic data such as time, country, and cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses, which greatly reduces the data for infectious disease prediction The demand threshold significantly reduces the difficulty of epidemic forecasting; compared with the time series model analysis method, the use of multi-baseline calibration-based infectious disease trend forecasting can reduce the impact of time series instability caused by human factors and obtain more accurate results. short-term forecast results.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of prediction data processing systems, in particular to a method and system for predicting infectious disease trends using a multi-baseline correction model. Background technique [0002] In the 21st century, mankind is facing many kinds of threats, such as the gradual deterioration of the natural environment and climate, and the prevalence of various diseases. Regardless of the impact of the environment or climate on human society, it is gradually formed, and it is a gradual accumulation process, and its harm is often not sudden. On the contrary, the occurrence of infectious diseases is both gradual and sudden, and its harm is often more obvious. During the outbreak of infectious diseases, researchers from all over the world have carried out studies on the transmission speed, spatial scope, transmission routes, and dynamic mechanisms of infectious diseases. Among them, the mathematical modeling of the infectious di...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G16H50/70G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G16H50/70G16H50/80
Inventor 曹鸿强赵鹏冷巍王俊
Owner 金电联行(北京)信息技术有限公司
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