Probability evaluation method for power adjustable capability of virtual power plant

Abstract

The invention provides a probability evaluation method for the power adjustable capability of a virtual power plant, and belongs to the technical field of power system operation and control. The method comprises the steps of performing decoupling linear approximation on a power flow model of a virtual power plant, and constructing a power flow equation in a matrix form; performing linearization processing on active-reactive power ranges output by various types of power generation equipment and energy storage equipment; constructing a Gaussian mixture model to perform probability distribution function fitting on uncertain factors such as photovoltaics, fans and loads; solving a power adjustable range of the virtual power plant at the grid-connected point under equal confidence by utilizingan opportunity constraint method; and in the active-reactive two-dimensional plane, calculating a scalar field function of the adjustable range and the confidence coefficient to obtain the virtual power plant power adjustable capability under different confidence coefficients. According to the method, the influence of uncertain factors on the power adjustable capability of the virtual power plantis fully considered, the calculation speed is effectively improved, a more accurate evaluation result can be obtained, and optimal scheduling of a power system is promoted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of operation control of electric power systems, and in particular relates to a probability evaluation method for power adjustable capacity of a virtual power plant. Background technique [0002] The virtual power plant organically integrates distributed generating units, controllable loads and distributed energy storage facilities, and uses advanced control technology and communication technology to realize the integrated control of various distributed energy sources. In a region, the virtual power plant can be used as a special power plant to participate in the optimal dispatch of the power system. However, due to the large number and small scale of distributed generation resources, they are scattered in the distribution network and have huge differences in characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult for the system to directly control all distributed generation resources. Virtual power plants can integrat...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the large number and small scale of distributed generation resources, they are scattered in the distribution network and have huge differences in characteristics.

Therefore, it is difficult for the system to directly control all distributed generation resources

Virtual power plants can integrate the above-mentioned distributed power sources. However, due to different equipment characteristics, network constraints, and a large number of uncertain factors such as load and new energy output, it is currently difficult to accurately evaluate the power adjustment capabilities of virtual power plants.

[0003] Existing methods for evaluating the power adjustable capacity of virtual power plants use deterministic evaluation methods and do not consider the impact of uncertainties in renewable energy and loads within virtual power plants.

There are also methods that generate multiple scenarios through the Monte Carlo method, and then construct the power adjustable capacity model of the virtual power plant under uncertain factors, but this method has a huge amount of calculation and slow calculation speed, and it is difficult to quickly obtain effective evaluation results

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