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Infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method, system, device and storage medium

A prediction method and infectious disease technology, applied in the field of infectious disease transmission and control, can solve the problem that the epidemic prediction method is not suitable for predicting the development of the epidemic situation, and achieve the effect of improving the accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-10-13
SHENZHEN URBAN PUBLIC SAFETY & TECH INST CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the epidemic situation of infectious diseases, so as to solve the problem that the existing epidemic prediction method is not suitable for predicting the actual development of the epidemic situation after the government takes control measures

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  • Infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method, system, device and storage medium
  • Infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method, system, device and storage medium
  • Infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method, system, device and storage medium

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[0040] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.

[0041] see figure 1 as shown, figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of the method for predicting the epidemic situation of infectious diseases in the first embodiment of the present invention. It should be noted that if there are substantially the same results, the prediction method of the present invention does not use figure 1 The flow sequence shown is limited. The forecasting method includes the steps of:

[0042] Step S101: According to the impact of government control measures on population flow, establish a prediction model for the number of floating population based on the contr...

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Abstract

The invention provides an infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method, system, device and storage medium. The infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method establishes a floatingpopulation quantity prediction model based on the influence of government control measures on population flow after the government of a region to be predicted applies the control measures, wherein the control measures comprise a control rework rate measure, a control isolation rate measure and a measure for controlling population flow in and out of the region to be predicted; establishing a mutual relation equation set among various crowds in the development of the infectious disease epidemic situation of the area to be predicted according to an infectious disease dynamics model based on thecontrol measures applied by the government of the area to be predicted; and finally, respectively predicting the change condition of the number of various crowds along with time in the epidemic situation development of the infectious disease in the region to be predicted through the floating population prediction model and the equation set. The infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method provided by the invention is suitable for predicting the actual situation of epidemic situation development after government takes control measures.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of infectious disease transmission and control, and more specifically, to a method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the epidemic situation of infectious diseases based on government control measures. Background technique [0002] The existing infectious disease dynamics SEIR model calculation method is relatively simple, and does not take into account factors such as government control, business resumption, domestic and foreign population movement, and suspected patients. Therefore, it is not suitable for predicting the actual situation of the epidemic development after the government takes control measures. [0003] Based on this, it is necessary to provide a new infectious disease dynamics model for epidemic prediction to effectively predict the number of infected people, susceptible people and latent people, and provide a basis for the government to formulate effective prevention and control...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G06F17/11
CPCG16H50/80G06F17/11Y02A90/10
Inventor 袁狄平尹继尧吴国华陈文刚严伟文周琳邓鹏
Owner SHENZHEN URBAN PUBLIC SAFETY & TECH INST CO LTD
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