Medium and small river integrated forecasting method based on negative correlation learning

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and small river integrated forecasting method based on negative correlation learning, and the medium and small river integrated forecasting method comprises the steps:firstly carrying out the specific analysis according to different watershed features and forecasting requirements, determining the research content, and carrying out the analysis of data; performingdata preprocessing, and selecting the data with the highest correlation with the prediction result to construct model input and output data; based on the idea of ensemble learning, combining the characteristics of a target drainage basin and the complexity of a sample data set to select sub-networks forming an integrated neural network and determine the structure of the sub-networks; constructingan integrated forecasting model by using a negative correlation learning method, and selecting an optimization algorithm and a loss function to train and optimize the model under different hyper-parameter conditions; and performing flood forecasting by using the model, calculating a corresponding flood process evaluation index to evaluate the forecasting effect of the model, and performing corresponding real-time forecasting by using the preprocessed hydrological historical data as the input of the integrated forecasting model and the basin outlet section flow corresponding to the forecast period moment as the output of the integrated forecasting model when the model is applied to an actual scene.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a data-driven flood forecasting method, in particular to an integrated forecasting method for medium and small rivers based on negative correlation learning. Background technique [0002] With the acceleration of urbanization, the use of land resources has gradually increased and vegetation has been destroyed, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods in small and medium rivers, and the damage and damage caused are also increasing. Floods in small and medium-sized rivers have the characteristics of heavy rainstorm intensity, short flood duration, strong suddenness, and difficulty in forecasting and prevention, making flood forecasting and early warning of small and medium-sized rivers a key weak link in current flood prevention and control. In addition, historical hydrological observation data for small and medium-sized rivers is quite scarce The accuracy of forecast and early warning and the increase of...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: In view of the problems that some existing flood forecasting methods have poor model generalization ability, limited forecasting range and insufficient forecasting accuracy when they are used for flood forecasting in small and medium river basins, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a stable performance, general It is an integrated forecasting method for small and medium-sized rivers that has strong chemical capabilities, high forecasting accuracy, and can effectively provide strong support for the decision-making of the flood control and disaster relief headquarters.

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